| User | Post |
|
7:09 pm
February 6, 2012
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
good luck with your investment!
|
|
|
3:51 pm
February 6, 2012
|
Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
|
|
I did end up buying some at $12.90. I like the mix of stable staples, like Corningware (every kitchen has some!) as well as their more fast-changing market like LCD screens and gorilla glass 2 etc. Plus they have one of those funky "if we ruled the future" videos out which shows where their heads are at.
I'll probably get some $17 Jan 2014 calls too for some fun :)
|
|
|
1:32 am
December 22, 2011
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
The things that point out at me is their acquisitions.
Just wonder how they will work out.
Lately ever since I've been reading about accrual accounting, I've been trying to put it into practice so if some things dont make sense, let me know. Im still trying to figure all of this out.
Seem like every 2 – 3 years, balance sheet and cash flow accruals spike for GLW which in turn caused a big jump in earnings.
Earnings:
2005 was $0.38
2006 was $1.16
2007 was $1.34
2008 was $3.32
2009 was $1.28
2010 was $2.25
Mind you, net income also increased as well and GLW has been managing to make good book rate of returns (current earnings/last yr BV)
Skipping ahead and taking into consideration other things, it looks like GLW could very well be worth $20.
|
|
|
3:17 pm
December 21, 2011
|
somrh
| | |
| Member | posts 336 |
|
|
The smartphone/tablet versus TV screen comparison should come into the equation somehow. I mean if we're talking 60 in versus 6 in diagonal measure, how much screen are we talking here? Maybe 100 times the surface area?
Granted people probably buy way more cell phones than TVs but that's a pretty huge difference. I don't know how they price their product but if it's largely on a square inch basis, then a drop in TV sales (and/or drop on margins) will take a huge hit. Is there a breakdown of their sales as far as that goes?
|
|
|
2:51 pm
December 21, 2011
|
Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
|
|
I guess all of their growth and sales did come during this recent smart phone explosion and an-LCD-tv-in-every-home sentiment, so I can understand a slow down for sure. I guess the question is whether the party is over enough for it to be selling under book. The kindle fire is gorilla glass however, and I can understand how a personal-media tablet is still in the early days of the consumer consciousness.
I'm tempted to buy now. I mean, at $12.50 they've priced it in as having a pretty crappy outlook. If it hits sub $11.50….
I hate trying to figure out whether people will buy things. I much prefer easier things, like valuing companies that sell things that everyone buys. Like soup. Or energy.
|
|
|
2:24 pm
December 21, 2011
|
somrh
| | |
| Member | posts 336 |
|
|
Not too long along there was a post on ZH:
About Those "Record" Black Friday Sales…
That's probably more negative from the retail side of things but the idea that their margins are sustainable is something to consider. How many more big screen TV's do you need?
(The funny thing is that my computer monitor is the biggest screen I have; I don't watch too much TV. Maybe I'll go out and buy one. So there's one sale for ya.)
|
|
|
2:16 pm
December 21, 2011
|
Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
|
|
Dug into the valuation numbers a bit today. Revenue up 10.5% average over 10 years. FCF/share has been going up around 20% the past 6 years. I normalized FCF/share at about $0.90 for my DCF and Graham formula. Used a 15% discount value to take into account the capital intensive business and some of the funky things somrh was mentioning.
Best case scenario: about $31
No growth: about $19
Graham: about $17
My middle of the road valuation: $23-$25
Based on these numbers, the market is saying that Corning is going to be a destroyer of value. Payout ratio on the dividend is pretty solid, so I don't forsee them having to cut in the next 3-5 years as you wait for it to reach intrinsic value.
Now that I have a number, just need to answer why the market thinks they will destory value. Any thoughts?
|
|
|
9:06 am
November 6, 2011
|
nell
| | |
| Member | posts 100 |
|
|
Just some issues one might consider..
- Asset turnover is declining.. Very capital intensive business
- Net margins are skewed due to tax credits for operating losses
- Input costs for manifacturing gorilla glass is not something this company can control
- Very cyclical business (customers from automative etc.)
Best wishes
|
|
|
5:33 am
November 2, 2011
|
somrh
| | |
| Member | posts 336 |
|
|
I've had this on my watch list for a while now but I haven't given it too much of a look. A couple of quick comments/questions:
1) Some of the revenue, I believe, is due to large screen LCD TV's. What's the market outlook for these? Can we expect continued sales/growth in this arena. I'm not too concerned about cell phones, etc, but those screens are much smaller than the 30+ inches of television screen.
2) Accounts Payable (DPO) seems a bit on the high side. DPO is around 100 days give or take. So GLW is effectively borrowing money from their suppliers for 3 months. Why is this? Is this part of their contract or is it due to other circumstances?
|
|
|
3:57 am
November 2, 2011
|
Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
|
|
They just raised their dividend too, which is always a good sign.
|
|
|
9:03 pm
October 27, 2011
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
looks like they are doing exceptionally well. Putting it on my study quickly pile.
The more consumer electronics exist, the higher demand for glass and gorilla glass. Gorilla glass revenue up 90%. wow.
|
|
|
4:47 am
October 13, 2011
|
Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
|
|
Their operating margin is all over the place, but they seem to have recovered from whatever was happening to them in the early 2000s. EPS at 2.10 and FCF per share at 1.7 and a share price of $13 the market has them pegged for some pretty serious underperformance. The business is pretty easy to understand–they make high quality glass.
Jae, as a member of the tech industry, what do you know of them?
The one weird red flag is a whole lot of negative non-cash items. Every year.
My quick n' dirty conservative valuation puts them around $23.
|
|
Home
