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11:15 pm
April 10, 2012
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stocki711
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| Member | posts 26 |
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Yes, it may be Korean but, there are still owernship issues considering the structure of the company and percentage ownership. Either way I have a limit order in for $2.03. I have listened to the discussions for over a year and I am confident.
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12:40 pm
April 10, 2012
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Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
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Jae Jun said:
So I'm just sitting tight. Well more like planning which stocks I will sell in order to build up the position.
This. It goes sub $2 I'm all over it.
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11:28 am
April 10, 2012
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PlanMaestro
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| Member | posts 3 |
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Post edited 4:31 am – April 10, 2012 by PlanMaestro
What about visits to the site. Maybe I am just showing my complete ignorance on how to access the game.
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/gnjoy.com#
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11:01 am
April 10, 2012
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Jae Jun
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who would have thought that GRVY would be sold like this right after game launch.
I don't see any news, even in Korea, that would justify this. So I'm just sitting tight. Well more like planning which stocks I will sell in order to build up the position.
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7:06 am
April 10, 2012
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Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
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stocki711 said:
I hate foreign companies after the chinese debacle.
You know GRVY is Korean right?
And I feel pretty much the same about it as I did a week ago. Nothing's changed except the price listen on an index. If it goes sub $2 then I'll have to beg/borrow/steal to get some more capital to put into it.
The game hasn't even been out a month. When do highschoolers get out of school for the summer in Korea? It'll be interesting to see if the number of players jump then.
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8:27 pm
April 9, 2012
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stocki711
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| Member | posts 26 |
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Post edited 1:28 pm – April 9, 2012 by stocki711
What does everything think of GRVY after the huge drop? Considering joining in even though I hate foreign companies after the chinese debacle.
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8:54 am
February 7, 2012
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Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
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For me it comes down to how RO2 sits with gamers. I'd be inclined to wait a quarter post drop to see how revenue changes with the new game. If we're seeing a big rise in money coming in, then I'd start thinking about multiples of book value for my sell. If the game seems to be so-so or flops, then I'd probably sell in the book value/$3.50 range.
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9:01 pm
February 6, 2012
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mihirbhatia
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| Member | posts 15 |
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well looks like the move in GRVY is well underway. So now with RO2 imminent – the real question is when do we start thinking of selling? I am sure most on this board will wait till its above NCAV territory but its already knocking on that door so when do you guys think its getting to the point where its time to unload?
These situations where you get up big are sometimes the hardest. Do you unload and book a pretty nice profit or hang in there to get the 3-4x returns.
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12:22 pm
November 12, 2011
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Jae Jun
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well quality of earnings really looks at organic operations. For now, GRVY has done well in strategically purchasing games that will fit well in its portfolio.
If GRVY continues to buy good games and profit from it, then although it isn't considered 100% quality, I'm fine with that.
But comparing the revenues excluding currency conversion is important though.
Still holding strong though.
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7:50 am
November 10, 2011
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jsarasin
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| Member | posts 35 |
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Not sure why the downplay I thought the quarterly looked pretty good.
If you look at korean compared to korean operating revenue increased by 53% from prior quarter. Am I wrong? Would this be a more absolute way to look at quality earnings?
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9:52 pm
November 9, 2011
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Jae Jun
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Pretty much what I was thinking.
Because a majority of revenue is derived overseas, the currency conversion doesn't add to quality.
Just continuing to wait and see.
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12:05 pm
November 9, 2011
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infinitee00
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| Member | posts 31 |
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Gravity released their quarterly earnings today and from a cursory glance earnings looked pretty good. I have been long this stock for a while now and I am happy to see that progress is being made on the RO2 front and increasing revenues from other games. Even though the risk/reward equation is great for this stock, I am a little disappointed by the quality of earnings.
Looking at the recent quarter and comparing it to Sep `10, we can see that the reason earnings are higher is because of 3 line items (all values are in KRW)
- R&D spending has gone down from 955M in Sep `10 to 555M in Sep`11 quarter (~6.9% of revenues to ~3.7% of revenues)
- Foreign currency gain of 548M in recent quarter compared to loss of 63M in Sep `10
- Provision for taxes ( no explanation provided for the reduction) has been reduced from ~30% to ~12% ( a reduction of 732M on only a 4.1% reduction in pre-tax income).
So, if we account for these changes, the net income actually was lower in the latest quarter compared to Sep'10.
The value in this company is still compelling but I wouldn't trust the quality of their earnings too much.
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7:51 am
November 8, 2011
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Jae Jun
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http://news.mmosite.com/conten…..v_16.shtml
Gravity announced that Ragnarok Online 2, the sequel to Ragnarok Online will undergo a 5-day limited testing from November 16th to 20th.
According to Gravity, during this limited testing,
players will have a chance to experience a 10-player instance and a
customizable system for developing their characters as they please.
Opening to all Ragnarok Online 2 official site members, this limited
testing will be focused on testing the server’s stability and new
content’s balance.
Gravity emphasized that entertaining elements and unique
gameplay have been added into Ragnarok Online 2. Enhancing the
prequel’s advantages, Ragnarok Online 2 will bring players into a bright
fantasy world, where they can reflect on Ragnarok Online, experience
surpassing new gameplay as well as bump into various monsters and NPCs
on different maps.
Ragnarok Online 2’ previous two tests haven’t been done smoothly. The
bad comments from the first-test participants resulted in the remake of
Ragnarok Online 2. However, the game still received lots of unfavorable
comments in its second test which though started four months after the
first test ended. Because of the previous two unsatisfactory tests, this
limited testing is vital to the success of the remade Ragnarok Online
2.
—————————
The comments get straight to the point. What if the game is still crap after this test? It's November already and they said they will launch early next year. If they continue to receive unfavorable comments, then will GRVY continue to edit the game?
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4:08 am
October 28, 2011
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Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
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Yeah, for me GRVY is still a really easy decision to make. It's a high probability of returning to a 1:1 cash/share price/share. A mid probability of being priced based on what it is (a profitable gaming company) which would mean a price that pay attention to future cash flows, and a lower probability of some sort of force that errodes profitability–whether that's no one plays the game, meddling management, the company's profitability being sacrificed to cover a loss in some other thing at GungHo etc.
It ain't risk free, but it's better odds than a coin toss. I wish I had more money to buy when it dips to $1.16 every three days :p
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9:04 pm
October 27, 2011
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Jae Jun
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A good summary of the pros and cons of GRVY.
Brought up some new points that we haven't discussed before. That being how Gunho affects the capital structure and the shareholder return potential.
http://longtermvalue.wordpress…..other-look
I first mentioned Gravity, a Korean developer, licensor and publisher of
on-line games, last December (2010). At that time I had, over the prior
6 months, accumulated a small position based on a simple thesis: the
company had over $1.90 in cash on its balance sheet, was operating on a
cash flow positive basis, had no debt and I could buy shares at about
$1.58 or 83% of cash. In retrospect my post was a bit flippant. There
were some negatives about the company that I didn’t fully analyze. The
most important, of course, was the majority ownership by GungHo
Entertainment (a Japanese entity controlled by SoftBank). I say
‘negative’ because with a majority shareholder there is little or no
possibility that an activist investor can influence management to adopt a
more shareholder-friendly capital allocation stance. Furthermore,
GungHo is a Japanese company and the most important licensee of
Gravity’s primary on-line game, Ragnarok, so there are potential
conflicts of interest at every twist and turn.
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10:27 am
August 26, 2011
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Jae Jun
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more and more people are playing games on their device and the gamers age also continues to expand.
Back in the day, it was only via the computer which meant younger, computer savvy people would play these games.
Now we have people from all ages playing games on their phones and tablets because it just makes it so easy.
If RO continues to focus on pumping out games for mobile devices, we could end up with a company like GLUU or Gameloft.
Gluu is a big company but they don't even make a profit. If GRVY can get in on this area, this could be a huge success.
I don't need to be telling GRVY this, because they've been releasing games for mobile devices for a while. They just need to get more popular game hits and run with it. Create a franchise game out of it maybe..
Or start improving the graphics. The new Android tablets support HD resolution these days and the graphics are truly stunning. It's what you would expect from an expensive computer. So the hardware is there, the games just have to support it.
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5:48 am
August 25, 2011
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jsarasin
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| Member | posts 35 |
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9:35 am
August 24, 2011
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jsarasin
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| Member | posts 35 |
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@ Hurley
GRVY is like too good to be true and is by far my favorite stock. I am loaded with GRVY in relation to my portfolio. Check out my article.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news/…..or-under-2
Regarding negatives:
- The obvious fact that RO1 is majority of revenues. Personally I am ok with this for another year and RO2 should be out then.
- Gung Ho who owns over 50% of the stock is somewhat a mystery in what they have planned for GRVY.
- GRVY may be a PFIC (passive foreign investment company) which in the U.S any gains in FMV are taxed as ORDINARY income.
@Everyone
Last quarterly report has the CFO's email address. What are people's thoughts on GRVY using some of its excess cash to buy back shares? More than likely he will disregard my email but my thoughts are to email him and show the benefits of a buy back. First this would increase our share values without taxation like a dividend. Also it should take GRVY out of the position of being a PFIC(if it is one). This may attract more larger funds who are scared of being taxed at ordinary income tax rates.
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11:02 am
August 23, 2011
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Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
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Feels like HSKA all over again: no reason for it to be as low as it is and kinda just waiting for the market to catch up. No analysts covering it, so no one really hears much about it. I figured with all the talk about Zynga and Facebook people would have stumbled upon GRVY and said something about it's low value. It basically has a one foot hurdle to step over: keep making money and putting out new games.
The downside I can see is that RO2 doesn't come out–ever–and people stop playing anything. Either way there is still money in the bank. (Oh! A bank fire. That could be a risk. Big bank fire destroys all their money  )
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9:59 am
August 23, 2011
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Hurley
| | Ontario, Canada | |
| New Member | posts 2 |
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If my business had $41 million cash in the bank and Current Assets of $71 million, would you be interested in buying my business for $40 million?
As Jae said in one of his earlier posts…Gravity's valuation is a "head scratching mystery".
Here is my take on the company and I would apprciate any and all feedback. Im more interested in the negative feedback because after all my research I have found very few negatives with this company.
No Brainer List:
1) Market Cap is hovering around their cash holdings. Basically getting the business for free.
2) Gravity makes money. 8 cents last quarter and 6 cents this quarter. Lets say gravity makes 6 cents for the next 2 quarters, and I'll put in a very coservative PE of 10 times earnings = $2.60 stock price. Even at $2.60 the market cap is in line with their current assets. As of today, I value this company in the $2.60 – $3.00 range.
3) RO2. RO2 is going to come out eventually and be a huge catalyst for the company and the stock price.
4) Momentum and Growth. When RO2 is released this company is going to get a lot of press and buzz in the investment community. Huge upside.
I have a lot of money invested in this one, and I see my downside protected with the cash in the bank and the profitable bottom line. I also see a huge potential for growth and massive returns in the future. In my opinion, its a value investors perfect recipe.
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