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4:17 pm
April 4, 2010
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zehua
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| Member | posts 96 |
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ankitgu said:
Zehua,
I've actually spoken to them and plan to visit them in March (if my trip goes according to plan).
From what I know, their focus has shifted from private projects to more public projects. Public projects come with lower margins, and so earnings might actually decrease.
Second – their labor force is unionized. I get pretty pumped about exciting stocks, but this part kind of killed the excitement. The fact remains though that this is a net-net and as revenue comes back up, the fear built into the stock price might disappear, and so it could still be a good investment.
Cheers!
Any updates? Did you visit the company last month?
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3:41 am
February 15, 2010
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jezzicaz789
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| New Member | posts 1 |
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ankitgu said:
You're right – it's not a net net.
NCAV is about 17M and so if you subtract that from the 24M market cap, you're left with 7M of value being placed on earnings. There's an assumption in there that earnings stay positive in the future.
My view is that it's just a cheap stock and that the earnings will eventually return. First 3 Q's of 09 were 674K in earnings, and if we assume it continues at same average rate, that's about 900k in earnings for the year, or just under 8 P/E ratio once you factor out 17M for NCAV.
If you ask me, I bet earnings will recover as the private sector projects come back. Unfortunately, that's a macro bet, and I'm not the best at that – it seems like there's at least a few years of real estate inventory to be realistically sold before the private sector really picks up, at least that's what Buffett has said publicly.
I'm torn – this looks like a great company, but the macro conditions could make it tough for a few years. I might grab some shares in this company so I'm forced to learn.
Side note – I find that once I've got stock in a company, I'll research it more… so listening through lots of quarterly calls, reading their 10Q's and K's, going through 10 years of financials, calling competitors, customers, etc.
Thank you for the post.
Hi guys, Im a newbie. Nice to join this forum.
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1:52 pm
February 14, 2010
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zehua
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| Member | posts 96 |
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ankitgu said:
You're right – it's not a net net.
NCAV is about 17M and so if you subtract that from the 24M market cap, you're left with 7M of value being placed on earnings. There's an assumption in there that earnings stay positive in the future.
My view is that it's just a cheap stock and that the earnings will eventually return. First 3 Q's of 09 were 674K in earnings, and if we assume it continues at same average rate, that's about 900k in earnings for the year, or just under 8 P/E ratio once you factor out 17M for NCAV.
If you ask me, I bet earnings will recover as the private sector projects come back. Unfortunately, that's a macro bet, and I'm not the best at that – it seems like there's at least a few years of real estate inventory to be realistically sold before the private sector really picks up, at least that's what Buffett has said publicly.
I'm torn – this looks like a great company, but the macro conditions could make it tough for a few years. I might grab some shares in this company so I'm forced to learn.
Side note – I find that once I've got stock in a company, I'll research it more… so listening through lots of quarterly calls, reading their 10Q's and K's, going through 10 years of financials, calling competitors, customers, etc.
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. Right now I think most part of their backlog is public projects, so earnings will not recover until they finish and start taking private projects. I called them and they said it is generally between 1-2 years for them to clear a project from the backlog.
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9:37 pm
February 13, 2010
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ankitgu
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| Member | posts 49 |
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You're right – it's not a net net.
NCAV is about 17M and so if you subtract that from the 24M market cap, you're left with 7M of value being placed on earnings. There's an assumption in there that earnings stay positive in the future.
My view is that it's just a cheap stock and that the earnings will eventually return. First 3 Q's of 09 were 674K in earnings, and if we assume it continues at same average rate, that's about 900k in earnings for the year, or just under 8 P/E ratio once you factor out 17M for NCAV.
If you ask me, I bet earnings will recover as the private sector projects come back. Unfortunately, that's a macro bet, and I'm not the best at that – it seems like there's at least a few years of real estate inventory to be realistically sold before the private sector really picks up, at least that's what Buffett has said publicly.
I'm torn – this looks like a great company, but the macro conditions could make it tough for a few years. I might grab some shares in this company so I'm forced to learn.
Side note – I find that once I've got stock in a company, I'll research it more… so listening through lots of quarterly calls, reading their 10Q's and K's, going through 10 years of financials, calling competitors, customers, etc.
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8:09 pm
February 13, 2010
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zehua
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| Member | posts 96 |
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Post edited 5:15 pm – February 13, 2010 by zehua
ankitgu said:
Zehua,
I've actually spoken to them and plan to visit them in March (if my trip goes according to plan).
From what I know, their focus has shifted from private projects to more public projects. Public projects come with lower margins, and so earnings might actually decrease.
Second – their labor force is unionized. I get pretty pumped about exciting stocks, but this part kind of killed the excitement. The fact remains though that this is a net-net and as revenue comes back up, the fear built into the stock price might disappear, and so it could still be a good investment.
Cheers!
Thank you! Please keep me posted on your visit to KSW.
Why do you think this is a net-net? The NNWC is only $1.69.
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5:11 pm
February 13, 2010
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ankitgu
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| Member | posts 49 |
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Zehua,
I've actually spoken to them and plan to visit them in March (if my trip goes according to plan).
From what I know, their focus has shifted from private projects to more public projects. Public projects come with lower margins, and so earnings might actually decrease.
Second – their labor force is unionized. I get pretty pumped about exciting stocks, but this part kind of killed the excitement. The fact remains though that this is a net-net and as revenue comes back up, the fear built into the stock price might disappear, and so it could still be a good investment.
Cheers!
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12:50 am
February 12, 2010
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zehua
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| Member | posts 96 |
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Post edited 9:54 pm – February 11, 2010 by zehua
KSW is a decent construction company that installs heat and cooling systems. I called the company recently and they said they are the biggest one in Manhattan area. Their EPS and stock price is hit hard by the construction crisis in 2008. Howver, in 2009 their backlog in September is four times that of June, so I think the turnaround is going to happen soon.
EPV is $5.6 and FCF and Graham are both $8.
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