| User | Post |
|
10:05 am
January 25, 2012
|
Graeme
| | Austin, Texas | |
| Member | posts 180 |
|
|
Just announced a $0.05 quarterly divided, so holding onto BOLT just got a whole lot sweeter.
|
|
|
11:12 pm
November 22, 2011
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
very nice indeed. I should reconsider adding a small position again to take advantage of the special div. Basically the same as getting 10% off the current price.
|
|
|
11:18 am
November 22, 2011
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
Hi Jae,
Hope things are well with you. I was checking my portfolio this morning and I noticed that while everything else in my portfolio had dropped Bolt had jumped about 7% so I was kind of curious as to why that took place so I went and took a closer look at there stock ticker and noticed in the headllines the following nice piece of information.
Bolt Technology Declares special dividend. The board is also considering the insitution of a quarterly dividend.
http://www.marketwatch.com/sto…..2011-11-22
I must say I was pleasantly surprised. I love the company anyways, but this just makes it all that much better. Who is going to complain with a nearly 10% special dividend. Now I have to decide if I want to purchase more shares to see if they offer me enough of a margin of safety.
Rocky
|
|
|
11:49 pm
December 27, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
I've been enjoying the ride up as well. After all BOLT is about 7% of my portfolio. Not a huge position but sizable nonetheless.
I won't be adding at these prices though. Not enough margin of safety for me to justify a bigger position.
As for posting portfolio reviews, I can set that up easily. Will do.
Got some great new features to the spreadsheets coming up. The stock tracking feature is a must have after having used it myself. Coming very soon.
|
|
|
11:18 pm
December 27, 2010
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
Well,
I have to say that I have been enjoying seeing Bolt come much closer to what I feel it is worth. That being said if it dropped again I would probably add to my position. This has been a great little company. I think that they are great.
Jae,
On a side note, I was wondering if you would consider putting up a forum spot where one could post there own portfolios and how they have been doing. Kinda of like how you do your monthly or is it quarterly updates on your own portfolio. I would like to be able to post this information so where for review by others, but I am not too interested in setting up my own blog.
I hope you have a great Holiday Season. And keep up the great spreadsheets in the New Year.
Rocky
|
|
|
12:38 pm
December 7, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
My assumptions for $17 did include some growth. Not a lot but some.
The question really is where you think oil is headed. That's the main driver of growth.
But on a personal note, I've learnt time and time again that selling when it reaches intrinsic value is the right choice. Sometimes it goes down and sometimes it goes up way beyong the selling price, but selling at intrinsic value is a discipline. One that I lacked many times this year.
I would be much happy to take my gains soon and to either hold cash or reinvest to make larger positions.
But I know exactly what you are referring to. I keep asking myself should I keep it a little longer?
BOLT fundamentals are perfect. If I could find 10 of these a year, I'm sure I could make a killing as well as sleep well at night knowing I am not risk any money.
|
|
|
10:44 pm
December 6, 2010
|
Collin
| | |
| Member | posts 10 |
|
|
Post edited 9:47 pm – December 6, 2010 by Collin
At first i thought of selling because it reaching the intrinsic value of $15 base on 0% growth and a high p/e of 23. Then I slowly began to ponder for hours (really many hours!)….
the p/e is based on depressed earnings as such a p/e of 23 might not be overvalued as i think it was. current price of $14.05 divide by earnings of $1.7 of 2008 is 8. as such, i believe we should assume a p/e of 8 instead of 23.
as for the intrinsic value of $15, i am divided over it. base on the earnings in 2008 and a mean p/e 16.38 for S&P 500 over the years (http://www.multpl.com/), i came out with a value of $20 = $1.7 * (16.38 * 0.75). i used 75% of mean p/e to be conservative.
Now, the first question would be, how long will it take for the company to recover to pre-crisis level? i assume another 2~3 years, in other words, i assume the stock price would be $20 in 2~3 years.
The second question would be, would it better to sell it now or continue to hold till it reach the price of $20 in 2~3 years. if in 2 years, i would have an annualized gain of about 40%. if in 3 years, i would have an annualized gain of about 25%. if it takes more than 3 years, my annualized gain would be pathetic. Note: the annualized gain % are very roughly calculated, not precise.
Final note. Do take note i did not factor in growth. If BOLT is to resume their growth rate after returning to pre-crisis level, the intrinsic value would be very high. As i finish typing this post, i thought that P/B would give a better calulcation that P/E since the earnings are depressed now. Taken from morningstar:
Stock 1.7
Industry 2.7
|
|
|
11:39 pm
December 3, 2010
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
Hi Jae,
Well Bolt has taken off today. I am personally loving watching it appreciate to where I think it should be valued. I have just rerun the numbers on the DCF on your spreadsheet. I took a 20% Discounted Rate, 2% Terminal Rate and 10% Growth Rate and came up with a valuation of $15.79/share. I am trying to make sure that I am not allowing myself to get to greedy here. I had orginally thought I would put the shares value around $14.07, but since rerunning it I am pretty comfortable with bumping it up to $15.79/share.
I was curious on your thoughts about about that valuation. Do you feel that I have overestimated the value or am I in a good range or am I still even undervaluing it.
Thanks,
Rocky
PS – I realize that the decision to buy and sell is mine and any consequences that fall out from that are my responisibility to bear.
|
|
|
10:28 pm
November 11, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
I plan to sell myself. There really doesn't need to be any news. I'm perfectly fine with selling at my determined price, especially in this type of market where everything is going up based on emotions.
It will be good to lock in gains if BOLT can reach about $14-15. Although I like to see it at $17 at least, mid teens is a good level.
|
|
|
8:16 pm
November 11, 2010
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
Jae,
I have been watching Bolt the last couple of weeks and they have taken off. If I remember my valuation before I bought I thought I would sell around $14-15 range. What are your thoughts? I have not seen anything that has caused me to change my valuation and I was wondering what your thoughts were revolving around it right now/
Thanks,
Rocky
|
|
|
7:57 am
October 11, 2010
|
itconsultant
| | Irving, Texas | |
| Member | posts 34 |
|
|
The latest 10-k is now available.
|
|
|
8:31 am
August 31, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
No not yet. It can take up to a month before the financials are released by the company.
|
|
|
9:29 pm
August 30, 2010
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
Have you seen a quarterly report on Bolt. I wanted to review it but all I have found is a brief summation of there financials. There does not seem to be one available.
Rocky
|
|
|
12:17 am
August 5, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
Yea I'll consider listing my positions in the monthly update. Won't go into specifics of returns and size but positions I could do.
|
|
|
8:06 pm
August 4, 2010
|
MrBook
| | |
| Member | posts 30 |
|
|
Nice write up on BOLT. I will read all of their footnotes tommorow thanks to you, Jae!
It would be nice if anywhere in this section or on this site if you had a listing of all of the companies that you own. Just a suggestion!
|
|
|
12:40 am
July 29, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
We are in the same boat now and can help each other stay emotionless. When somebody you know buys a stock that you hold, there is the tendency to "feel safe" but in the case of us value investors, it works best when we challenge each others rationale.
|
|
|
9:40 pm
July 28, 2010
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
So, I went ahead and purchased some shares in Bolt today. It sure looks like a great company. I have been impressed with what I have seen from them so far. Hopefully more good news on the horizon.
Thanks for the great spreadsheets and the great site. I really enjoy it.
Rocky
|
|
|
12:35 am
July 28, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
BOLT is a company that I am perfectly content to just wait out. No worries at all on this one.
Solid fundamentals to make the investment worthwhile. Won't be a huge profit but easily in the 50% and above range.
Price has recovered nicely too. But even at $9's it's a good investment. If it drops, I'll add more. Should have added more myself actually.
|
|
|
9:28 pm
July 27, 2010
|
krackerjack121
| | |
| Member | posts 69 |
|
|
Jae,
I have been reading Bolt's annual report over the last weekend and I have been throughly impressed with what I am seeing. They continue to add to there cash position and even though they have seen a decrease in sales, they continue to appear to be selling at a discount. How do you feel about them at $9.43 as an entry point. To me it seems like this would still be a decent place to buy. I have been impressed by how little debt (ie. zero) they have and how much money the company makes.
Thoughts,
Rocky
|
|
|
11:14 pm
June 27, 2010
|
Jae Jun
| | |
| Admin
| posts 1453 |
|
|
I look at the drop of not just BOLT but every oil related company and it's definitely clear that it is an overreaction.
Here is Whitney Tilson's take on the oil and BP crisis. May answer some questions. I don't agree with everything he says but good to get an insight into his view.
http://www.gurufocus.com/forum…..960,page=1
And here is a good rebuttal.
http://seekingalpha.com/articl…..g-about-bp
As for your other questions, I'll write an article about it to update anyone else that may be interested or have a position.
Thanks for the great questions.
|
|
Home
