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Home Portfolio Reviews Summer 2011 sale

Summer 2011 sale
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12:37 pm
September 13, 2011


nell

Member

posts 100
8

- CSCO

 

I guess this article sums it up..

 

NEW YORK (AP) — Cisco Systems Inc. lowered its long-term sales forecast on Tuesday, acknowledging that its days of heady growth won't return in the foreseeable future.

Chief Financial Officer Frank Calderoni told analysts and investors at a meeting in San Jose, Calif. that Cisco, the world's largest maker of computer networking equipment, now expects sales to grow 5 percent to 7 percent per year for the next three years.

Its long-term target has been for annual revenue growth of 12 percent to 17 percent. That was easily achievable for a decade, as the Internet boomed. But its sales have grown by only 9 percent per year in the last four years, due to competition and the slow economy.

Analysts polled by FactSet have on average been expecting 5.5 percent sales growth for this year, so the midpoint of Cisco's forecast is slightly higher. However, they were expecting slightly better growth in fiscal 2013 than Cisco's forecast implies.

Cisco shares rose 35 percent, or 2.2 percent, to $16.44 in afternoon trading.

Calderoni said Cisco expects to grow earnings faster than revenue, at about 7 percent to 9 percent per year.

Cisco also expects to "hold or gain share" in its major segments, Calderoni said. The 5 percent to 7 percent forecast for sales growth compares to the company's 5 percent to 8 percent growth estimate for the total market for its products, implying that Cisco sees relatively stagnant market share expansion over all.

Cisco is in the midst of a drastic reorganization. The company has cut 6,500 jobs this year, and has gone from trying to expand into more than a dozen markets to focusing on five core areas. In the process, it has shut down its Flip Video unit, which made popular consumer camcorders, and trimmed its other consumer businesses.

Speculation is swirling that long-serving CEO John Chambers might be the next victim of Cisco's shakeup. Speaking at the event, he was combative, saying the company is gunning for Hewlett-Packard Co. as it expands its new business of selling servers for corporate data centers.

Chambers said another competitor, Juniper Networks Inc., "is the most vulnerable I've ever seen."

Cisco's toughest challenger, Chambers said, is Huawei Technologies Co. of China, which competes with low-cost equipment. Cisco plans to go after it in its home market, Chambers said.

11:29 am
September 13, 2011


nell

Member

posts 100
7

 

- ORCL

They have some nice free options embedded.. like cashing in on JAVA (-> android, google), while

offering that fortress like database segment..

 

Valuation looks cheap to me.. Any thoughts? ;-)

 

- Fibertower

This one seems to have a business model like American Tower (see AMT; -> Chuck Akre).

 

Both profiles..

 

FTWR:

FiberTower Corporation provides facilities-based backhaul services to wireless carriers in the United States. Backhaul is the transport of voice, video, and data traffic from a wireless carrier's mobile base station, or cell site, to its mobile switching center or other exchange point where the traffic is then switched onto a wire line telecommunications network. The company provides backhaul services by utilizing its wireless spectrum assets and fiber relationships to construct and operate high-coverage, high-capacity hybrid microwave, and fiber networks. It offers transport services based on various protocols, such as time division multiplexing, SONET, and Ethernet. As of March 31, 2011, the company provided services to 6,151 billing customer locations at 3,308 deployed sites in 13 markets, including Atlanta, Boston, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas/Fort Worth, Denver, Detroit, Houston, New York/New Jersey, Pittsburgh, San Antonio/Austin/Waco, Washington DC/N. Virginia/S. Maryland, and west Florida. FiberTower Corporation is headquartered in San Francisco, California

 

AMT:

American Tower Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates as a wireless and broadcast communications infrastructure company. It develops, owns, and operates communications sites; and leases antenna space on multi-tenant communications sites to wireless service providers, and radio and television broadcast companies. The company’s Rental and Management Operations segment leases space on its wireless communications towers to customers, including personal communications services, cellular, specialized mobile radio, WiMAX, paging, and fixed microwave. This segment also leases on its broadcast towers to wireless service providers, and radio and television broadcast companies; and distributed antenna system (DAS) networks in malls, casinos, and other in-building applications, as well as provides rooftop management services to property owners who own rooftops that are capable of hosting wireless communications equipment. Its Network Development Services segment provides tower-related services, such as site acquisition, zoning and permitting services, and structural analysis services. The company’s communications site portfolio includes approximately 38,048 sites, such as wireless communications towers, broadcast communications towers, and DAS networks in the United States, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, India, and Peru. American Tower Corporation was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts

11:12 am
September 13, 2011


nell

Member

posts 100
6

@graeme: CLF sounds interesting.. why do you like it? ;-)

 

@jae:

- Ted Weschler: He runs a very concentrated portfolio..

http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/bro…..getcompany

 

CINCINNATI BELL INC
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS GROUP INC
DAVITA INC
DIRECTV
FIBERTOWER CORP
LIBERTY MEDIA CORP
VALASSIS COMMUNICATIONS INC
WSFS FINANCIAL COPR
GRACE WR & CO DEL


- SYK




I think that their growth depends on a big longterm trend of an aging population. 




- MA




Lets do a quick calculation:




IV = 20*20*(1,2^5)/(1,1^5)=~618




We are unsure if they can meet 20% growth and a multiple of 20. Therefore


we demand a 40% margin of safety ;-)




So we could buy till $370..




I was lucky with this one at $250 ;-)




- CSCO




One techology that was misinterpreted as a technology shift: openflow (http://www.openflow.org/wp/tag/cisco/)




- NVO




It’s Novo Nordisk (NYSE:NVO), which is the world’s largest diabetes company with 51% global market share.


The company exhibits a pristine balance sheet while still funding (and honestly accounting for) a rigorous drug


development program. I expect their new insulin product that will potentially come to market in late 2012


will be a blockbuster.



















10:13 am
September 13, 2011



Jae Jun


Admin 

posts 1453











5







Good call on BOLT and RIMM so far!


Graeme said: 



With all the market turmoil due to the downgrade and Europe worries I've got some nice things on sale! I bet you all have too. 


 


Some CLF


more GRVY


RIMM


and today decided to get some BOLT at $10.84


As soon as BAM flirts with $26 again I'll get some and call that a good portfolio rebalance. 


 


Had to sell my CSCO with the sell thesis that there were way better deals out there. I'm learning a lot about having money on hand for oportunities like this. Sucked having to sell CSCO for a tiny loss. Gotta fight that feeling of anxiety when I have money just sitting in the account doing nothing. Repeat after me: it's ok to have a part of your portfolio in cash!


 


What all have others been buying?  





 

















10:13 am
September 13, 2011



Jae Jun


Admin 

posts 1453











4







I just read about Ted Weschler and DTV. Anyone got a link to his portfolio holdings?


MA / V – one that I would want to own but not so confident in the price.


SYK – Have looked at SYK before, great financials and numbers. Not certain about its growth prospects.


NVO – new one for me


CSCO – wouldn't mind holding but I want to get a better understanding of whether there is a technology shift that CSCO can't fend off.

















4:55 am
September 13, 2011



nell


Member
posts 100











3







hi,


 


what a great time to add some quality companies..


 


- DTV (latin america, ted weschler)


- MA (international trade, todd combs) 


- SYK (orthopaedic)


- NVO (diabetes)


- CSCO (internet)


 


best wishes,


 


nell

















4:20 pm
August 18, 2011



Jae Jun


Admin 

posts 1453











2







Im surprised that you sold CSCO because based on metrics, CSCO is extremely cheap.


I bought more HHC


Bought DCHAF just before the huge drop….


Trying to buy RHDGF but ask bid spread is too big with little volume.


Missed out on buying MCZ at the 50c range

















8:53 am
August 18, 2011



Graeme
Austin, Texas


Member
posts 180











1







With all the market turmoil due to the downgrade and Europe worries I've got some nice things on sale! I bet you all have too. 


 


Some CLF

more GRVY

RIMM

and today decided to get some BOLT at $10.84


As soon as BAM flirts with $26 again I'll get some and call that a good portfolio rebalance. 


 


Had to sell my CSCO with the sell thesis that there were way better deals out there. I'm learning a lot about having money on hand for oportunities like this. Sucked having to sell CSCO for a tiny loss. Gotta fight that feeling of anxiety when I have money just sitting in the account doing nothing. Repeat after me: it's ok to have a part of your portfolio in cash!


 


What all have others been buying?  















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