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Improving Graham's Checklist Screen

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10:11 am
January 3, 2011


somrh

Member

posts 336

4

Just out of curiosity, what explicit formulas do you use to calculate owners earnings?

Regarding inventories, the concern is that the company may have to sell items at a discount especially if it's overstocked. This is especially a concern for companies that are in industries in which products become "obsolete" in a short period of time such as technology or fashion.

I agree valueinvestortoday comment regarding interest and taxes being real charges. What I had in mind (and I didn't really think this through because it won't work well for interest) is that you can change the comparison figure to "force" the company to, say, pay a certain tax rate. This eliminates companies who have decent earnings as a result of their ability to take advantage of special tax incentives which could change at the whim of government.

5:16 pm
December 28, 2010


Jae Jun

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posts 1464

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Post edited 4:18 pm – December 28, 2010 by Jae Jun


I like the suggestions. Could provide interesting results. Not sure about EBIT. I've never used it myself. It's always been either FCF or owner earnings but owner earnings shows the real operations of the company in a better light.

Let me see what I get and I could upload the results here.

In terms of liquidity I don't think there will be too much of a difference between current ratio and quick ratio for the resulting companies. Graham's criteria would probably eliminate all capex heavy companies anyways so the current and quick ratio will come out to be close.

6:57 am
December 27, 2010


valueinvestortoday

Member

posts 80

2


FCF, if it's comprised of Buffett's Owner Earnings, makes a bit of sense, however, using EBIT doesn't. Interest and Taxes are very real charges to the bottom line and should always be included.  Buffett said to stay away from companies that promote Pro Forma and EBITDA accounting. He probably should have and meant to include EBIT as well. In any event, Adjusted Earnings, which account for one time and non cash items, is the measurement I rely on the most. You should always make your comparisons against reported earnings as well to understand the entire picture. If your reported earnings are $1 ps, for example, and you find after adjustments that true earnings are $0.85 yielding a 10% E/P and AAA Bonds are yielding 4.68%, then you've got a nice piece of the puzzle solved.

 

As far as discounting inventories and recievables for a "going concern" in the fashion that one woud a liquidation, that's not practical. The reason we discount these items during a liquidation situation, or possibility thereof, is because the company MUST liquidate and they will not fetch top dollar for these items. As well, a buyer recognizes this and WON'T offer top dollar (market value) for these items. If the company is in no need or desire of disposing itself, then these items are worth what they're worth and there's no need to discount them UNLESS you find that the items are worth less than what is stated on the books. If the company is a going concern, the current ratio is the correct process.

4:23 pm
December 26, 2010


somrh

Member

posts 336

1

This is just a brainstorm so feel free to add any comments or criticisms.

According to criteria 1, we look at an earnings yield that is twice to current bond yields. What if instead of earnings yield we used something like FCF yield or EBIT yield (etc)? Of course we might have to adjust the actual comparison number too.

According to criteria 7, we look for current ratio greater than 2. But companies that are adding inventories and/or receivables will likely have a high current ratio. One alternative would be to use quick ratio. Another is to just look at cash over current liabilities. A third might be to discount invetories and receivables in a simlar way that Graham's liquidation value does.

Any thoughts?

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