Comments on: Fortune 40 Best Stocks to Retire on:Part 2

By: Fortune 40 Best Stocks to Retire on: Part 1 | Old School Value

Fortune 40 Best Stocks to Retire on: Part 1 | Old School Value — Thu, 16 Jul 2009 08:00:38 +0000

[...] Fortune 40 Best Stocks to Retire on:Part 2 | Old School Value [...]

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Tue, 19 May 2009 07:17:14 +0000

I must have edited it and uploaded the new version. Well if there is no mistake that’s even better. Thanks for checking.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:39:06 +0000

@Jae,

Just checked my Muli-Year numbers and they all look correct.

Jim’s last blog post..Axcelis Technology, Inc. Continuation…

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:33:38 +0000

Disregard my 10 year DCF 1/9 question. I get it now. Plus, that was a blonde moment even though I’ve always had black hair

Jim’s last blog post..Axcelis Technology, Inc. Continuation…

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 19 May 2009 02:31:04 +0000

@Jae,

WOW, I never noticed that. LOL. I certainly know the correct calculation to DCF by hand but I’m lost when it comes to spreadsheet calculations. I would have never caught that. Thank you. On the 10 year DCF, I’m assuming the calculation would be 1/9? Thanks again!

I rarely use Google for numbers. They’ve been wrong too much concerning their data. For instance, ACLS. They report that ACLS has $71.24 M in cash & equivalents when in fact $8.32 M is restricted.

As you already know, when doing “detailed” work, always use the “actual” 10-K. I made a post on ACLS, let me know what you think. My writing skills are not the best so hopefully I’ll get better the more I write.

Jim’s last blog post..Axcelis Technology, Inc. Continuation…

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Sun, 17 May 2009 05:06:14 +0000

The error in the calculations have to do with the multi-year calculation.
e.g. in the 5 yr DCF spreadsheet, to calculate the shareholders equity from 2004-2008 the formula should be =IF(AND(F24>0,J24>0),(J24/F24)^(1/4)-1,0)

But instead of the ^1/4 at the end, the free version may have 1/3 or 1/5. Just need to go through it and check.

It seems like Google has historical pricing as well. But I’ve only used Yahoo to check the past 10 years data.

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 15 May 2009 16:44:25 +0000

I never noticed that your “free” DCF was incorrect. I’ll have to go through and look at the math. I’ve created a “stone age” looking DCF years a go and used to use that. As I recall, your DCF matched up with that one fairly well so I’d be surprised if the math was off. Anyway, I’m curious now. What section of it was wrong specifically?

Although I don’t trust their numbers completely, finance.yahoo.com has historical closing prices of a stock in which many go back 20 sometimes 30 years if the company has been around that long of course. You can get those prices on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis. Very useful when looking at their historical growth correlation.

As far as David Dreman, I was just mentioning how funny it was that I started reading that exact book “the next generation” around the same time you read it. I found a brand new copy on ebay for $3. Shipping & Handling cost me more than the book did Take care.

Jim

Jim’s last blog post..Breaking Down the Business Part 1: Axcelis Technologies, Inc.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Fri, 15 May 2009 07:26:58 +0000

@ Jim,

Somebody pointed out the formula when calculating the ranges in the free spreadsheet is actually incorrect but it turns out to be more conservative. I also dont use the auto calculated growth rate. I always check the historical pricing and then usually apply a growth rate that is slightly lower than the PE.

So far this method has been fairly accurate for me so I’ll stick to what works until I find a better method.

Where do you get the information for historical prices of 20 years??

(Oh and for some reason your comments got deleted so I had to add it back manually. I lost your other comment regarding the Contrarian Value Investing book as I was switching web hosts as well..)

By: Jim

Jim — Fri, 15 May 2009 00:18:37 +0000

@Jae: “One tip is to look at the historical prices and how it fits in with the intrinsic value line. Over time, price follows value so if the historical price of 10 years travels somewhat closely to the growth rate, you’ve found a possible realistic growth rate for the next 5 years or so, not the next year.”

That is a statement to live by. I try to go back at least 20 years in pricing.

Jim’s last blog post..Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACLS)

By: Jim

Jim — Thu, 14 May 2009 23:50:00 +0000

@Jae,

LOL I’m sorry, I just noticed someone had the same question as I did after the fact. Anyway, I actually like the fact that the version I’m using is allot more conservative of an estimate than your premium one. All the best and sorry for asking before reading.

Jim’s last blog post..Axcelis Technologies, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACLS)