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12:39 pm
April 21, 2011
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Jae Jun
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With the price where it is at now, it is equivalent to $0.92 before the splits. I figured the fair value of INSM before the buyout was about $1.50 at least but that was with IPLEX. Since it looks like they are throwing that away, you really have to make sure you under the new drug and the cash flow potential of it.
At current prices, unless you are confident that it will pass ALL FDA testing, upside and downside looks like 1-1.
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1:30 pm
April 19, 2011
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infinitee00
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John
I still have INSM in my portfolio and I am waiting for it to hit my target sell price ( after that I might just use a trailing stop). Yes they have been going up in expectations of positive Phase 3 trial results (which might take a year or two) or a possible buyout.
I am not sure whether any of these scenarios is possible as the % of Phase 3 trials that get approved by FDA is about 55% (sorry i cannot find the source now). And an even smaller subset make any decent amount of money. The odds of making money in the long run on INSM is probably less than 40% and so for me it does not justify holding it for a long period.
However, if any of the above play out, an investor has the chance of making serious money.
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8:59 pm
April 18, 2011
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Jae Jun
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it's been a while since I sold them.
I guess management was right and I was wrong about buying a small unknown company about to undergo phase 3 testing.
They passed it which is why the stock just shot up.
If you go through the details of their drug and read the managements expectation of cash flow generated from the drug, you can then get an idea of how much value it is.
I don't know much more than that at the moment.
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6:07 pm
April 18, 2011
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john_allen
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jae,
would you mind giving some thoughts on recent events at INSM? the stock has caught fire post-split and insider buying.
thank you,
john
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6:50 pm
March 2, 2010
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Jae Jun
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Additional info and news on INSM and why it has been going up towards my intrinsic value. Still at least 100% upside to go and looks so much more possible now than ever.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/…..d=46695692
http://investorshub.advfn.com/…..d=46820292
Drug testing shows good results and as I mentioned in previous posts, Merck looks to be still involved somehow.
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8:27 pm
November 8, 2009
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Jae Jun
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Sorry chiawei8312. I'm not in the position to recommend buys or sells. You can see what I did in a coming post though.
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4:44 am
November 8, 2009
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chiawei8312
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With the balance sheet not having any red flag, would it be a good time to pick up more shares at low .70c range?
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1:50 pm
November 7, 2009
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Jae Jun
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I took a look at the balance sheet and as you said, not much has changed. I plan to write an article on it very soon.
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11:28 am
November 6, 2009
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chiawei8312
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Earning just came out today, not much changed. Cash & Equivalents went down a bit, Account Receivable went up, total liabilities went down.
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5:14 pm
October 27, 2009
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Jae Jun
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The worst thing that I know of is that they will be delisted. There are plenty of other companies that were delisted but went one operating normally. It may decrease the exposure of the stock as many institutions wont buy OTC stocks.
However, once a company gets a delisting notice, it's a good kick in the butt for them to get things moving and to provide good news.
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8:13 pm
October 24, 2009
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Zefiro50
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Hello Jae,
I really like the new forum you got going here. Since no one has replied regarding Insmed Inc.
I wanted to ask if they are unable to maintain 1 dollar closing price by March 15th 2010, what is the worst thing that could happen to the shareholders of this company before it is able to reached it's true value?
Also looking at the risk involving this biomedical company like mentioned in your seeking alpha, it appears straightforward and standard for any biomedical company trying create and market a product.
I really like the potential on this particular stock but would like to know more regarding the downfalls that come with it.
Thanks.
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7:16 pm
September 29, 2009
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Jae Jun
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A good reply from seekingalpha regarding INSM.
Info that I didn't know about as well.
============
http://seekingalpha.com/articl…..-good-deal
From RTN:
Correction:
the NAPO ' investment ' was not an investment as such, rather NAPO licensed an insmed compound for further study and the cash involved in that deal was given in the form of a stake in NAPO.
Currently skeleton crew of 17 staff total after biogenerics sale to merck and an unsuccesfull trial in mmd.
No new CEO named since the summer, chairman of the board Melvin Sharoky in charge since that time.
Iplex still a natural key component in the human body with a lot of literature on growth and repair potential. the bp3 part has promising apoptotic properties. Insmed owns the patents on the igf1-bp3 combination as well as bp3.
Iplex is fda approved for use in short stature, removed from market for that indication due to a settlement agreement with former Genentech over partial production patent on free igf1.(partial buildstone of iplex)
Catalyst for INSM:
- ALS expanded acces program in italy, revenue last year in excess of 10million dollar (11-12mln), fully reimbursed by the italian government . And insmed commented this summer they had two years of stockpile of iplex for their current uses.
-per 2009: free iplex for a limited number of US ALS patients who went to battle against the FDA after denial of compasionate use based on italian increased survival data of 20-25% (keep in mind ALS is fatal). they are closely monitored and have video records of how they are doing. This is not an official trial, but a result of a compromise between fda and the als patients.
The ALS community in the USA has been deafening silent since that time, even though very few were in the passionate use compromise. Where before that time they even has a washington DC demonstration planned.
Insmed has a big pile of cash and no cash burn.(cash flow positive this quarter? )
Iplex still has value for
a) its stockpile seeing italian prices
b)many reported uses in the human body where it allready naturally occurs
c)bp3 also reported to increase effectiveness of drugs like herceptine when used in combination. (apoptotic properties)
http://www.medicalnewstoday.c... and combine with this cancerres.aacrjournals…
(just one example)
Should there be no ALS trial or takeover by merkc/roche or ipsen (their business partners per earlier legal agreements, and merck with the buying of the insmed facility this year):
In current market conditions a lot of biotech have to give huge discounts to get cash in dilution deals since it is hard to get for them. If insmed were to partner there i am quite sure they would get a very good deal on amount of value for their money should they invest in return for royalties.
Not sure which scenario will unfold, but definately back in again this summe.
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4:28 am
September 28, 2009
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Jae Jun
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Scribd is a great place for finding value stocks.
Seems like INSM is popping up in screens by other investors.
Towards the bottom in the Long stock screen results section
http://www.scribd.com/doc/1986…..en-Results
Also under the section in the first page "Activist targets: Potential sales, liquidations or recaps"
http://www.scribd.com/doc/1996…..ain-Hunter
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