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5:50 pm
April 16, 2010
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Jae Jun
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I dont think it is going to matter at this point.
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10:13 am
April 14, 2010
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Sid
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Oh jeez, Resilient files an appeal…
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9:11 am
April 14, 2010
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Sid
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| Member | posts 33 |
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Post edited 1:12 pm – April 14, 2010 by Sid
I didn't sell any and I'm perfectly happy. It turned out to be a super cheap option that could have paid out 5x or more. I only allocated a small part of the portfolio and for this thing to move the needle, it had to make big moves. Find odds like this often and one of them will make it more than worth it (read The Big Short re:Cornwall Capital).
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3:51 am
April 14, 2010
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ankitgu
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FWIW, I'm also possibly seeing some "self-fulfilling prophecy" type of things with equities. Distressed debt guys have already picked up on this – news articles talked about high-yield, so some started buying, prices went up, more articles, more buying, and the cycle repeats till the bubble pops.
With small cap stocks, I think the same thing happens. I've missed a decent bit of the upside because I got out quite a bit earlier, largely because my valuation methods don't support the levels many stocks have risen to.
If anyone here has some input on how they deal with these issues, please let me know.
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3:45 am
April 14, 2010
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ankitgu
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| Member | posts 49 |
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Post edited 7:53 am – April 14, 2010 by ankitgu
On Friday, after seeing it rise from 14 to 22 cents, I sold 20% of my position at 20 cents on Friday, and then 20% again on Monday at 20 cents as well. I still had 60% left, and I put in a limit order to sell above 12.5 cents as soon as the markets open.
I basically walked away having broken even, but learned a lot like Jae said.
Friday and Monday were tough decisions. I was only willing to pay 13-14 cents for each share, given the 12.8 cent downside. I did this, but then it hit 20 cents. I don't believe in looking at my "cost" at all, because as we learn in statistics, there should be a lack of memory and every action should be independent of other actions. In any case, since I wasn't willing to buy at 20 cents, I started to trim my position.
I was a little confused how to handle it, because on one hand I could justify selling all of it, and on the other, I didn't want to sell any of it because I was thinking about my original goal and the economics of the trade, however that refers back to my "cost", which is a theory I don't subscribe to.
Here's the issue – I'm dirt freaking cheap. I want to buy 25-cent-dollars. I'm not even willing to pay 60 cents for a dollar. I've found a few of those 25-cent-dollars, then when it starts to hit 50-75 cent dollar range, I have a hard time keeping it. I'm not willing to pay that price, but I could see why the price might go higher as other investors come into the that specific equity.
At some point, I might just need to decide what my strategy is going to be, but it's definitely an area where I could use advice from a seasoned investor.
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3:27 am
April 14, 2010
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Jae Jun
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Credit to those who did sell.
Learnt lots of things on this one. Didn't work out as I had hoped but given the odds, it was a good starting and learning point.
I'm thinking that should another situation like this arise, I should either take some off the table and protect profits rather than hope.
OR
Wait until the hearing is over and then get back in if the verdict is in my favour.
Would most likely have to buy about 20% on the rise, but it would be better than taking a loss.
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7:19 pm
April 12, 2010
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itserich
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The timing of the price drop is curious.
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6:36 pm
April 12, 2010
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Jae Jun
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True. What a shame.
Will look to buy at $0.105 again as Im sure many will sell out immediately.
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6:29 pm
April 12, 2010
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Sid
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| Member | posts 33 |
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Denied. On to the next business.
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5:13 pm
April 12, 2010
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Sid
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Anybody else find themselves refreshing the KCC website a few too many times today?  Called the court to ask what today's filing meant and figured out it solely had to do with the transcription service.
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2:37 am
April 11, 2010
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Jae Jun
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I wouldn't mind shares either. RGCIQ never traded at proper levels due to the debt it couldn't renew while at the same time, the rest of the radio stocks kept rising.
One thing that all radio stocks have in common is that, they are all expecting and seeing improvements advertising.
Post bankruptcy, Regent will be much leaner and with the structure settled, there should be plenty of upside.
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4:52 am
April 10, 2010
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ankitgu
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Give me stock in the company, no question.
They have positive EBITDA, and that tells us a lot about where the company is now ignoring past mistakes as well as capital structure issues. Remember, EBIT measurements tell us a lot about how the operations are doing, and that matters because you can work out capital structure issues, but without solid operations, you could be getting into a money losing business. The biggest issue is the I in EBITDA, interest. With less debt, extended maturities on remaining debt, and low interest rates, there are lots of earnings left for shareholders.
In addition, as liquidity continues to return to the markets, and as the senate elections take place this year, we'll see businesses and government candidates spend more on radio advertisements. The last 8 months of every year are historically stronger months for radios anyway and so we'll see improved numbers thanks to that.
I think a company like this will make a solid investment with the new cap table and I will be ecstatic if they gave us ownership in the new company rather than cash.
Ankit
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9:15 pm
April 9, 2010
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itserich
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One similarity between Citadel and Regent is large shareholders who are not actively involved in the bankrutpcy cases.
Sanders' last minute letter is curious. He was in a perfect spot to take a lead role. Other major Regent shareholders have aggressive reputations.
If a committee is successful, what is the best case? Shares in the company instead of the cash?
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10:19 am
April 9, 2010
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john_allen
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Jae, I agree about the similarities with CTDBQ. I have to admit the similarities and the action there influenced me to take another bite. Of course also the fundamentals of the business are critical. So anyway I have one tranche just at the "gift" price and another now a few pennies (and a high percentage!) higher…. I do think the "gift" price is probably the downside and the threat to remove it likely a bluff.
We'll see!
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1:16 am
April 9, 2010
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Jae Jun
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For me, this case has become even more interesting as I finally shook off my regret for selling CTDBQ and looked into their dockets.
Believe it or not, Citadel is doing close to exactly what Regent is doing. They are both in a pre packaged plan and their estimates of enterprise value is overly depressed, ignores comparable peers, uses low ball multiples and ignores the fact that the radio industry is a cash cow despite the leverage.
One example of this is clearly written in this docket.
http://www.kccllc.net/document…..000013.pdf
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11:15 pm
April 8, 2010
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john_allen
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Jae, Ankitgu – I'm in as well. Tomorrow we will either feel like geniuses or else wish we were more versed in bankruptcy law :)
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12:31 pm
April 8, 2010
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Jae Jun
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I've bought some shares again. Entry and exit discipline is completely off this year, but let's see.
I'll let you know when I finish buying.
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6:31 am
April 8, 2010
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ankitgu
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| Member | posts 49 |
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10:20 pm
April 7, 2010
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itserich
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The only difference I found in the two Resilient documents are a few changes in the text, such as paragraphs 10 – 12.
The primary difference in valuation is the EBITDA multiples, but there is also the NOL issue which was not really addressed by Resilient, as far as I can tell. Regent is claiming that is factored into the EBITDA multiples while Resilient adds it back.
One curious thing, Regent had previously criticized Resilient for using intraday pricing, but prices have increased since then, so that argument was missing this time.
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5:41 pm
April 7, 2010
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ankitgu
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| Member | posts 49 |
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sdev said:Nothing in particular, I just like to talking to people to learn more. Any idea why they withdrew the filing they made earlier today?
Gotcha, and that's perfectly fine, didn't mean to come off harsh :)
I think there was a difference in valuation, check over the per share values.
There was a new one filed if you hadn't come across that yet.
If anyone here has shares and wants to support the formation of an equity committee, please email me at ankit.gupta[-at-]me[dot]com. All you will need to do is send an email to an address I give you with your name, number of shares, and that you support the formation. Send me an email and I'll send you instructions.
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