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Net Enterprise Value – Review

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6:57 pm
February 7, 2010


valueinvestortoday

Member

posts 75

8

Post edited 12:13 am – February 8, 2010 by valueinvestortoday


Good Warren Buffett quote but I'd be very surprised if Mr. Buffett uses any valuation techniques who's formula is based off of what the general market currently values the business as. I don't see the logic in that. In any event, coming from my mathematical background and years spent in the insurance industry, I've never valued any two businesses the same way twice. Each has its own special qualities that are often times unique to itself. I prefer Inventory and Recievables analysis as my starting point most often, then follow up with a balance sheet analysis. Then from there I can safely make the appropiate adjustments to the income statement to either include items or disinclude items. Then I like to compare those preliminary results with the actual inflows and outflows of cash the company has and is experiencing.

Then from there, who knows what valuation techniques will be needed for further analysis. Different cars require different wrenches. But nowhere in any of my analytical work do I include the current market capitalization of a company that is based off of what the general investing world (the majority being irrational) thinks the stock should be worth. Mr. Buffett also said that the stock market is a voting machine in the short term. I rather leave the general investors erroneous voting habits out of my analysis work.

6:46 pm
February 5, 2010


jalleninvest

Coronado, CA

Member

posts 19

7

I guess I don't worry about day to day fluctuations in these matters.  There is very seldom that much difference in the outcome  to matter.  That's cutting the margin of safety much too close for my serenity.  I remember WB saying that he would rather be vaguely right than precisely wrong.

Coming from a background dealing with real estate appraisals a lot, I try to look at several valuation angles, based on assets, based on earning power, based on comparables (if there ever truly any!) and past history. 

It's just another tool in the toolbox to use as one needs it.

3:11 am
February 5, 2010


valueinvestortoday

Member

posts 75

6

Post edited 8:12 am – February 5, 2010 by valueinvestortoday


jalleninvest,

Your argument is a correct one however it was one that was so obvious that I didn't feel it needed explaining and is why I didn't mention it in my post.

If the company were to sell today, then market cap typically would be the base you would start the calculation from. However, a few things are wrong about this premise. #1: what if the stock price is currently significantly overvalued and the acquiring company's offer is a more rational one? If that happens, the share price is going to plummet and you'll find your calculation to be in gross error. #2: If you are analyzing a business over a 2 or 3 day period of time, for example, and you use a multitude of EV to whatever calculations, your going to have to redo those calculations (all of them) on a daily basis because the market cap of a business can change significantly on a daily basis. If you use the tangible book value of equity, you have 3 months before your calculation become outdated.

There are an entire host of reasons for using the tangible book value of equity as a starting point for EV rather than market capitalization but I won't waste your time with it all. In any event, EV certainly has its place in the tool bag and is a very relevant valuation tool concerning specific situations. It works from the same basic principal as one would use for selling a financed car to a prospective buyer. It's a rational and simple tool. If it's simple, it's useful.

5:15 pm
February 4, 2010


Jae Jun

Admin

posts 1331

5

jalleninvest makes a good point. I never use EV to value a company. It is simply a method by which I look for companies where they have excess cash compared to its total debt. We all know markets are inefficient so market caps will be wrong for many companies, especially small caps, if market cap is the barometer for value.

The important part is to just make sure the EV is consistent across all companies you evaluate.

1:30 am
February 4, 2010


jalleninvest

Coronado, CA

Member

posts 19

4

Post edited 6:31 am – February 4, 2010 by jalleninvest


Market Cap in calculating Enterprise value isn't so much a concession that it is a rational price, but the price an investor would have to pay to acquire the entire operation now, as though you were doing a negotiated deal.  Let's say you were buying Frank's Corner Grocery.  As part of that transaction, what would you have to pay for all the stock, all the debt, to end up with a paid for business?

The classic formula not only involves market value of equity but also market value of debt, less cash.   Most often debt is at market on the balance sheet, but sometimes not  as in the case of outstanding bonds.

11:54 pm
February 2, 2010


valueinvestortoday

Member

posts 75

3

The only data I see that you are missing is 'minority interest' & 'preferred stock'. You would add those two items in the same way as total liabilities because they are debts, not often included in Total Liabilities but sometimes are, that a business would need to pay just like a debt if they purchased the entire business. Therefore:

EV = Market Capitalization + Total Liabilities + Minority Interest + Preferred stock – Excess Cash & Equivalents.

Your Excess Cash & Equiv. is correct.

So now we come to an important question; that of Market Capitalization. If the Market Cap. of a company is currently 'X', how do we know if that is in rational judgment? The biggest problem I have with EV is its use of Market Capitalization as the starting point to finding its value. If we declare Market Cap as a rational expression of the true asset value of a business then we also affirm that the business is being priced efficiently. Since the main job of the value investor is to find price inefficiencies, I suggest, rather than using Market Cap as your starting point, you should use either Book Value or Tangible Book Value (preferably) as your starting point.

Let's look at an example:

Gannett (NYSE: GCI)

Market Capitalization: $3.56B

Book Value Equity: $1.38B

Cash & Equivalents: 123.77M

Goodwill: $2.87B

Total Liabilities: $5.73B

Minority Interest: $214M

Preferred Stock: $0

Total Shares Out: 236.24M

TCL is smaller than TCA so 0 is greater.

Current Share Price: $15.08 p/s

If we beleived that the investing world for the most part was of a rational mind then we'd use Market Cap as our starting point.

$3.56B + $5.73B + $214M – $123.77M = $9.38B / 236.24M = $39.71 Per Share

Now, a more rational expectation in my opinion is to start with the Book Value of Equity and deduct goodwill:

$1.38B + $5.73 + $214M – $2.87B – 123.77M = $4.33B / 236.24 = $18.33 Per Share

Note: I would also deduct items that carry no value that are often found on the balance sheet; but you need to read the SEC filings with a fine toothed comb to find out what these items are. For example: 'other assets' could consists of $10 Million worth of toothpicks in which case their value would most likely be useless unless the purchasing business operates in the toothpick business.

In any event, this is the way I use Enterprise Value and it makes the most sense to me.

Jim

10:39 pm
January 3, 2010


Jae Jun

Admin

posts 1331

2

You're right about the calcuations. The results I put up on the article were based off a screener so i didn't manually calculate each one. Too time consuming.

But you do have the concept down.

Excess cash is the amount of cash that the business does not need. Total liabilities is current liabilities + long term liabilities.

I need to go through many of the companies myself but the purpose was to offer a starting point for people to think about.

Depending on the screener, the data may not be up to date.

9:20 pm
January 3, 2010


Zefiro50

Washington

Member

posts 12

1

Hello All,

I have been testing Enterprise Value equation: Market Caps + Total Debt – Excess Cash

Excess Cash = Total Cash – Max(0, Current Liabilities – Current Assets)

Here are my questions:

1. I am assuming Total debt being just Total Liabilities. Is this correct?

2. For Excess cash, I am confused what to use. I been using Cash and Cash equivalent as the excess cash. Is this correct?

3. I understand that EV is a much more accurate take over price of a company.

    – If the EV is negative, then how do we use this in our evaluation? Since EV to Earning and EV to FCF would be negative. Should we just say that is the cash in excess that would be given back to the investor if and when the company fails?

As an example, I have used MYRX and their current 09/2009 10-Q filing.

Market Caps:123.3m

Cash and Equiv: 69.4m

Current Assets: 160.1m

Current Liabilities: 7.1m

Total Liabilities: 7.1m

Excess Cash = 69.4m – max(0, 7.1m – 160.1m) = $69.4m since the max of (0, -153) is 0.

EV = 123.3m + 7.1m – 69.4m =  61m

Now this does not match JJ's calcuation. What am I doing wrong?

Thanks.

-SHM

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