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11:26 pm
March 23, 2010
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zehua
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Vince P said:Hey Jae, not sure if you saw this over at Greenback'd or not but check out the write-up on HIHO.
I read through the article. I agree with the book value of $3 per share, but this article didn't mention DCF and EPV valuations, which I think both are around $5.
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1:32 pm
March 16, 2010
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zehua
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Post edited 5:41 pm – March 16, 2010 by zehua
Jae Jun said:
Well yes it is good of course but they said "up to" $1m. Companies rarely every buy it all.
Just making a note that share repurchases don't often always bring capital appreciation which is what we were taught to believe.
If the company is buying back shares, they don't have anywhere else to put the money. It's much better than squandering it somewhere but a one time dividend is so much better. Take a look at MSN.
Thank you! I didn't notice the "up to" key word. Anyway, my EPV and DCF estimates are all arond $4.6 per share.
The major risk is currency risk. I know in south China, the working environment is deteriorating, and there is a shortage of workers.
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1:55 am
March 16, 2010
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Jae Jun
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Well yes it is good of course but they said "up to" $1m. Companies rarely every buy it all.
Just making a note that share repurchases don't often always bring capital appreciation which is what we were taught to believe.
If the company is buying back shares, they don't have anywhere else to put the money. It's much better than squandering it somewhere but a one time dividend is so much better. Take a look at MSN.
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1:48 am
March 16, 2010
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zehua
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| Member | posts 96 |
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Post edited 5:53 am – March 16, 2010 by zehua
Jae Jun said:I prefer insider buying than share buybacks. I'll have to write an article of how companies that buyback shares don't perform that much better than the market.
But this company is buying back over 28% of its existing shares. That is not ignorable, is it?
In the past I have also seen insider buys that don't work well. BOFL is one of them. The insiders were buying like crazy when it was 0.4 per share. Then the bank gets worse and worse, and it has to anounce a plan to issue 86 million shares to raise more capital. Then it cannot find any underwritters willing to do this public offering, and now it becomes significantly under-capitalized, according to the government's regulation, and its business is tightly restricted. In the mean time, although the share price rose to 1.2, I would consider this as a mere speculation rise.
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1:38 am
March 16, 2010
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Jae Jun
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I prefer insider buying than share buybacks. I'll have to write an article of how companies that buyback shares don't perform that much better than the market.
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1:35 am
March 16, 2010
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zehua
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Jae Jun said:
@ zehua,
Are you referring to HIHO or GLF?
If you are talking about GLF, it does look like capex is more or less understated or that PPE is way overstated.
@DrSues,
Yea the difference between EPV and net reproduction does raise a warning. There really is no reason for the spread to be that large.
I am referring to HIHO. They have just anounced a stock repurchase plan for 1 million stocks. That is HUGE.
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1:17 am
March 16, 2010
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Jae Jun
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@ zehua,
Are you referring to HIHO or GLF?
If you are talking about GLF, it does look like capex is more or less understated or that PPE is way overstated.
@DrSues,
Yea the difference between EPV and net reproduction does raise a warning. There really is no reason for the spread to be that large.
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11:01 pm
March 15, 2010
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DrSues02
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Jae,
I had GLF on my watch list from a long time ago but I can't remember how it got there. Looking at the numbers again, I'd probably shy away.
Margins are incredible but CROIC is barely above 0 (median value of .5%). Without any modifications, EPV shows $12.69 with a reproduction value of $50.70. This doesn't seem to be a business that has a competitive advantage.
I'd be interested in your calculations though.
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1:54 am
March 15, 2010
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zehua
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Jae Jun said:No I havent read it. I'll be sure to check it out.
Hi Jae,
For the past fe w years, D&A is always around twice as much as Maintainance Capex. Does this mean that the PPE is actually understated?
Thanks,
Zehua
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9:55 pm
March 14, 2010
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zehua
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| Member | posts 96 |
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I read through their annuals. I think the EPV and DCF are both around $4.6. It is a pretty decent company, and they have just anounced the buyback of 1 million shares, which is more than 25%.
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3:22 pm
December 11, 2009
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Jae Jun
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No I havent read it. I'll be sure to check it out.
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6:12 pm
December 10, 2009
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Vince P
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Hey Jae, not sure if you saw this over at Greenback'd or not but check out the write-up on HIHO.
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2:07 pm
December 10, 2009
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Jae Jun
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First saw this company last year in the 2008 forbes list and the price was absurd. But 2009 has changed things and the stock has crashed to a reasonable level in value territory.
Has anyone looked into this company?
Looks to have been hit hard by the drop in oil prices and has had all the growth factor smacked out of it.
MOS looks to be around 40%
Received a tweet about HIHO and looking at the numbers, this company is seriously cheap. I haven't done any detailed work on the company but I can immediately tell is cheap.
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