Comments on: A Look at Aquila (ILA) Arbitrage

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Thu, 01 May 2008 05:40:50 +0000

Update. The deal deadline has been extended to August 6.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Thu, 03 Apr 2008 08:18:05 +0000

Seems like many of the execs have been exercising their options on 3/31.
A sign that they believe the deal will go through?

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Tue, 01 Apr 2008 05:14:34 +0000

I can’t say how other people are profiting from their arbitrage strategies, but mine revolve around consistent plays with low risk. The more I play, percentage wise, I win.
I honestly don’t know how the whole thing will play out because of this whole Missouri commission dragging on for so long. They truly are the last and only hurdle I believe.
When I find more evidence that Missouri will approve, I’ll be sure to put money in then. But there is a good chance that I may be too late by then, but the market is full of opportunities. ILA is just one of them.

By: Quint

Quint — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 22:47:30 +0000

I have heard that Mr Singer strategy on Aquila is that he will make money both ways, if the merger happens or if it doesnÂt. I guess he feels that Aquila has been improving their bottom line; I donÂt have the expertise to figure that out, but thatÂs what I heard are his thoughts. I do have a stake in Aquila and I am thinking of buy more to lower my cost bases.good money after bad, What do you think?

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 08:25:34 +0000

That is something I am still figuring out right now. I need to calculate the probabilities of different scenarios occurring. Ive been watching a couple of insiders buy a lot of shares from the SEC website. I check the RSS I set up for ILA daily.
Also, the approval from Missouri isn’t expected for a couple of months. So I am in no rush to do anything.

By: Quint

Quint — Fri, 28 Mar 2008 03:24:32 +0000

if Missouri commission Oks the deal Aquila stock will move fast, you will have to be on your toes to catch it. one of Aquila broad members has been buy it through his headge fund that he runs, his name is Singer

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 07:32:47 +0000

The Missouri Commission is the last and only hurdle that remains. That is the only reason why I am not putting my money where my mouth is just yet.
ILA and GXP have already resubmitted the proposal to the Missouri Commission once before and the current proposal doesn’t seem to be expected to close until end of Q2 2008 (around June). With about 3 months left, there is still time to watch how this unfolds. But this deal has been ongoing for over a year and it does seem like both parties really want this by looking at the effort and the money invested to this merger.
To me, it seems like the odds of winning are in my favour, I still want to see the Missouri commission approve the deal before I invest any money. I would be very surprised if the deal falls through due to this last approval but it could happen.

By: Quint

Quint — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 23:49:17 +0000

I donÃ¢ÂÂt think that any of the companies want to terminate this deal; I am hearing that the Missouri Commission staff is the big hurdle.
What has been relay to me is that if the Iatan project is put into the mix and with the fishing expedition by the Missouri Commission staff this could be an up hill battle.
I was wondering if you could read the article, Google (Regulators OK Questions in Aquila Sale By DAVID TWIDDY 03.20.08, 4:05 PM ET) and tell me what you think.