Comments on: Asset Play with ValueVision Media Inc (VVTV)

By: Jewellery 24

Jewellery 24 — Mon, 15 Nov 2010 06:54:17 +0000

The Week Ahead…

We found your article interesting and added a Trackback to it on the Jewellery24.eu site…

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 06:15:50 +0000

My latest thoughts are the same as what I wrote in the last post. If VVTV can execute even a little of what they promise, they are set to go. Their major setback have been absurdly high costs which ate into profits, and when they announce the results of all their contract renegotiations, we’ll be able to get an idea of how much money the company can save.

Save money and then execute strategy. I’m not being optimistic with numbers or anything but the company has been undervalued so much and for so long.

New management is great! Most of them are from QVC so they have worked with each other and know what works. Strategy is straight from QVC.
The best compliment is imitation and if VVTV can imitate QVC that would be great.

By: Onyx

Onyx — Tue, 16 Jun 2009 03:13:00 +0000

Great analysis Jae. any new thoughts on vvtv? seems to have been really moving in the past several weeks? still an opportunity?

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 04:39:02 +0000

I’ve taken a look at the numbers and I’ll write an update soon.
But the debt doesn’t alarm me at this point. I can’t remember off the top of my head the type of debt but it seems to be a one off thing.

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 17 Dec 2008 00:03:45 +0000

Jae, have you seen the latest 10Q? They have $93.17 in liabilities up 25.96% from last quarter. Their Cash is $61.41 Million up 25.76% from last quarter as well. I’ve got a revised liquidation value of $55.91 Million making each share valued at $1.66 per share. A 315% Margin of Safety to today’s closing price of $0.40 per share.

By: Potax

Potax — Mon, 15 Dec 2008 20:06:00 +0000

long @ 0.381

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:45:06 +0000

The dividend was my catalyst. Although its true that most high dividends are unreasonable assertions and most often don’t come to fruition what separated CPI was that in over 28 years they’ve never lowered or not payed a quarterly dividend.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 17:28:23 +0000

yea I need a good rubbing in. My fault for not looking into it further.

Lesson I learnt is to not get lazy..

I’ll have to re-evaluate the company for sure now and see.

Also, if the price has been rocketing up because of fundamentals, I would have to say I missed out on a possible 10 bagger, especially with that huge 50% dividend yield you grabbed.

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 16:57:31 +0000

I know it isn’t kosher to say these words but I can’t resist and its all in good nature. I TOLD YA SO!!!

I’m averaged in at $1.60 and I’m very very happy to say the least. It proves that a value investor can make money even in a recession. This was my largest holding and I’m proud to say that I beat the hell out of the S&P and nearly every day trader this year. I still have a Strong Buy rating on this stock and believe that it will go to $20.00 within the next 1.5 years. I’ve set my stop loss but I definitely am not selling yet.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 05:36:57 +0000

WOW CPI up 125% on the day (12/09/2008)
I’m kicking myself for not having gotten off my butt and doing some reading but that’s what you get for being lazy.

Like Buffett says, the biggest mistakes are the ones he missed out on. This could potentially have been one of them for me.

I’ll look for the next one in the meantime.

By: Ludovici

Ludovici — Thu, 27 Nov 2008 09:56:09 +0000

have no fear about responsibility. in investing it’s always caveat emptor. assuming you’re not a fiendish deceiver (as in Descartes’ Meditations), i will say that i appreciate the intellectual spirit of your work; i know i wouldn’t have the fortitude for it but am happy to observe, encourage and free-ride.

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 19:18:03 +0000

I know you don’t use beta although I personally do. Beta is 1.91 which is indicative of wild price swings but I believe the potential good outweighs potential bad.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:26:41 +0000

Do understand that there are wild +/-20% price swings on this one so you have to have a strong stomach.

I just want to get it out that I’m not trying to influence anyone. I write these ideas and hope there is somebody to refute my argument with strong evidence.

By: ludovici

ludovici — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 14:32:14 +0000

you guys are a bad influence. i just put in a little order at 45 cents. one way or another, it will teach me something.

By: Jim

Jim — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 00:24:15 +0000

lol, me too. I completely missed the 0.30’s. Would have been nice but no need to be disappointed. I’m putting the horse before the cart but I think I’d like to crack open a bottle tonight. hahaha. Have a good night.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Wed, 26 Nov 2008 00:14:19 +0000

lol too much excitement from all the annual and quarterly reports I assume.

My calculation is $116.48 Million but I’m subtracting cash because I am thinking that GE will want out of its stake and convert those preferred shares for cash. If that is the case, all the cash is gone. So I’m being conservative and leaving cash out. Either way if you take into account the amount that has to be paid out to GE, its roughly the same.

So my conservative value is $56 million. I’m averaged at $0.52 but always seem to miss the 20% drop immediately after I buy anything… lol

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 23:24:52 +0000

You’ve got to excuse me LOL, I’ve been up for 27 hours. I had insomnia last night and couldn’t sleep. I get that every once in a while when I think too hard. Lately, I have been doing just that What you meant and I didn’t catch right away was that your valuation is around $116.48 Million. Of course you add cash lol Very tired but I can’t go to sleep now otherwise I’ll be up at 1:00am. Sorry about that. Anyway, it does tell me that my valuations are on the extreme conservative side which is exactly where I want them to be and still be able to produce more than 200% MOS. That makes me even more comfortable in my decision. Thanks for the news updates. If I find any, i’ll return the favor.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 23:18:27 +0000

I thought my valuation was conservative $56.76 will work for me as well. I’m averaged at $0.51 p/s. Can you tell me why you ignore the cash? I’m not a pro at liquidation valuations but I have a good knowledge base for it but I was under the assumption the valuation would look something like this:

Cash – 100% realized
Marketable Securities – 100% realized
accounts receivable – 75% realized
Inventories – 50% realized
Prepaid Expenses – discounted by T-rate because it ends up on the income statement
PPE – normal discount usually 45%, I use 20% but it’s worth something
Goodwill – 0% realized
Intangibles – 0% realized
Deferred Taxes – 0% realized
Long Term Investments 15% realized
Total Liabilities – 100% realized

Although I didn’t, you could add back in Depreciation/Depletion & Amortization because during the liquidation process, those items no longer expenses and are considered excess cash. I was conservative and decided to have as low a valuation as I could to justify my position.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 22:31:24 +0000

Jim,
If I completely ignore all cash, I get a value of $56.76 million.

It also seems like the liquidation or sale I was hoping for in this play is occurring sooner than I thought.
http://www.multichannel.com/article/CA6616948.html

The quicker it sells itself the better.

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 25 Nov 2008 21:20:39 +0000

Jae, I’ve got a liquidation value of $65.73 Mill. Is that in the same ballpark as what you have?