Comments on: VVTV ShopNBC QVC HSN Internet Retail Market Numbers

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 23:39:51 +0000

I think Jim meant 220% of this portfolio rather than just a few positions. I’ve seen his portfolio and performance and all I can say is that I am jealous.

By: The General

The General — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 21:16:51 +0000

Jim,

If you had purchased VV the date you posted how well you have done…you would have been up 302% on that investment. There is no foolproof methodology. Not too late to buy VV, but do your own evaluation. Nice up on VV so far…but it has a long long way to go…

By: Jim

Jim — Tue, 19 May 2009 19:16:24 +0000

@General,

I don’t own NILE. Its not a company that interests me. The companies that do interest me have made me over 220% for this year thus far. I used an “old school” methodology of picking every single one of them too.

Jim’s last blog post..Axcelis Technology, Inc. Continuation…

By: The General

The General — Tue, 19 May 2009 16:13:58 +0000

Thanks Jim. We all have opinions. If you or Jae can justify NILE’s price with any degree of ‘old school value’, good luck.

By: Jim

Jim — Mon, 11 May 2009 01:36:44 +0000

Regardless of who is correct regarding any company’s valuation, to make a comment such as this:

“if that is correct, your services are no longer needed as NILE more appropriately valued sub $5.”

is a rude and childish comment to begin with considering you haven’t paid a dollar for Jae’s “services”. Frankly, it it were me, your childish comment wouldn’t warrant any further attention from me.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Fri, 08 May 2009 19:14:52 +0000

@ The General,

I didn’t know PE made that much of a difference. VVTV has N/A for a PE which is by far so much worse than a PE of 54. Also, how far out are you looking at when calculating the business? Sure it may seem overpriced when compared to its assets. I’ve looked into NILE previously, and you’re right the moat is small, but that is the same for any retail.

A valuation of $32 may be speculative to you but price follows value and ever since its IPO, its followed it pretty closely. When it was $90, it was grossly overpriced but at current prices, I think it’s about right. And I dont think the point of investing is to calculate a real time intrinsic value of the company.

If we calculated the fair value in this market for mostly any company, they all have declining revenues and margins.

By: The General

The General — Mon, 04 May 2009 23:51:55 +0000

Sub $5…for starters it sports a 54 P-E and 2+ Price-to-sales ratio….with declining sales and declining earnings. On an op basis alone, in this market, 10x PE is $6.50. It is sub $5 because there is nothing to prevent competitors from coming in and taking gowth/share from it and it has been so over-valued for so long it needs a haircut. (short interest is the only thing keeing this up).

A valuation of $32 on this is far more speculative than any view you have had on VVTV (as example)…in fact a price of $32 on VV is more defensible IF they turn around and in fact double sales the next five years (yes it could happen)

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Fri, 01 May 2009 04:49:07 +0000

They’ve had a bad year in 2008 but every company goes through ups and downs. Athough I wouldn’t investing in NILE to begin with, why do you think it should be less than $5?

By: The General

The General — Thu, 30 Apr 2009 23:11:32 +0000

I noticed you have an estimated value of $32 on NILE…if that is correct, your services are no longer needed as NILE more appropriately valued sub $5.

By: Jae Jun

Jae Jun — Sat, 18 Apr 2009 07:33:26 +0000

You stuck to Rule #1. Never lose money. I was considering selling out today as well but didn’t because we knew they were going to have a tough year and I have yet to see where the new margins will be.