Seems like the current pull back clipped the wings of American Eagle. At its current price of $17.17 is it a superb deal or a value trap?
Recent News
On March 6th, AEO dropped 15%. Panic had set into the market. The reason? Same store sales fell 4% in February. Head over to any finance sites and people are asking about the drop and their panic is evident. Was I panicking? Sure was. I was panicking with excitement at the chance of picking up 50c dollars.
I’ll try going over a few things here.
Insider Transactions
Head over to the SEC website (direct link to AEO filings) and view the form 4’s. Form 4 is a filing that must be submitted to the SEC for insider transactions.
From the latest filings, we see that a little over 1 million shares were exercised or purchased (I believe they are stock options) at $21.28. None of which have been sold yet.
This tells me a couple of things:
- Insiders believe the price of $21.28 is underpricing the value.
- Insders are confident in their company and their business prospects.
The Industry
Frankly, retail and teen fashion are horrible industries. Retail is cyclical, fashion is just as cyclical and seasonal. One day the shirt you’re wearing is considered hot and the next, it’s out dated. Combine the two and you are looking at a difficult industry with little moat between competitors. However, make your mark, get brand awareness and apply some competitive advantage and you may just have what it takes for great growth in a highly competitive but profitable industry.
The Brand
On Feb 22, in a recent teen survey by Pali Research showed that “hands down” AEO won as the favorite brand and most dollars spent.
Currently, AEO are running the American Eagle, Aerie, Martin + Osa, 77kids.
Martin + Osa seems to be finding difficulty in engraving its place in retail but Aerie is continuing to increase sales along with America Eagle. The real important question you have to ask yourself is “do you believe that the company will grow in the next 5 years or so?”
The conclusion to the question above will eventually dictate your decision on AEO as a potential investment. Remember what Buffett said.
Growth and value are joined at the hip – Warren Buffett
The Management
This section I must leave to individuals to decide upon the competency of management. Don’t let my thoughts cloud or influence yours. There are many hints from annual reports and other publications that you should read for yourself as well seeing this interview from CNBC.
James O’Donnell the CEO speaks candidly in this interview, something that I always look for because it portrays the CEO as focusing on the business, operations and future growth, rather than focusing on reporting lovable earnings for the short term.
Part 1of video
Part 2 of video
The Intrinsic Value
AEO has been able to steadily increase its earnings, owner earnings for the past 10 years without any drastic volatility. I like to invest in companies where they have consistent growth rather than huge ups and downs. AEO fits that filter.
It seems like AEO has been able to grow FCF at 35% for the past 10 years. They have no long term debt, a nice lump of cash in their balance sheet and for every $1 invested into the company, they were able to generate $0.17 with it. Can AEO do this for the next 5 or 10 years? I don’t know. But by being reasonable, I do have an idea of a potential growth rate.
Can AEO keep up the 35% FCF growth for the next 5-10 years? I doubt it. Assuming that the company is able to grow at 15% for 3 years, slowed down 10% in years 4-7, slowed down another 10% in years 8-10 followed by 5% growth in years 11-20, the intrinsic value comes out to $37.37. 50% margin of safety applied for a small, fast growing company in a competitive industry gives a target buy price of $18.69.
Can the price go lower? Why not? The lowest any company can go is $0, but considering current economic situations, uncertainty and fear in the market, I’m sure there is a good chance the price may drop. But I see a huge gain compared to a short term possibility of 10% loss.
Price is what you pay, value is what you get – Warren Buffett
In answer to the first question. Is it a superb deal or a value trap? My analysis and research reveals that it is a deal. But then again, I’m not always right. Let me know what you think.
Disclaimer
I own shares of American Eagle Outstanding.
