Posts Tagged ‘intrinsic value’

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AAPL Valuation from a Value Investor

Here’s some controversy coming your way. A stock price valuation of AAPL by a value investor.

Warning: if you love Apple, I mean really l.o.v.e. AAPL, this may not be what you want to hear.

The Apple Story…

Apple is consistently a Wall Street darling. The company is covered by 35 analysts, it’s products, services and CEO is constantly in the news. Which is why I don’t believe in the “it is misunderstood” theory by so many investors.

Think of 35 analysts as one full classroom of elite students doing the same project and trying to come up with different views and opinions.

I don’t bother with efficient markets but in this case, I would believe that the market as well as the 35 analysts couldn’t all be missing out on revenue generation and where it will be coming from in the future. I’ll leave that to someone who’s good with the magic 8 ball.

Moving on..

Apple Numbers

There is no doubt in my mind that AAPL is a fantastic business. It’s moat is huge, products fantastic, innovation outstanding and execution breathtaking. The same goes for it’s financial statements.

If you take a look at Apple’s financial statements, it is so healthy you would never notice there was a recession in 2008.

  • FCF growth is on steroids
  • Gross, operating, net margins constantly increasing
  • Management is able to make 20c off every $1 of cash invested. Now that is amazing.
  • Every $1 of sales is converted to 15c of FCF
  • Earnings growth is equally impressive

Check out the financial statements of the past 10 years and 20 quarters for AAPL.

(AAPL 10 Year Financial and 20 Quarterly Financial Statements)

So AAPL is a great investment right? Not for a value investor.

AAPL Intrinsic Value

When I previously calculated the intrinsic value of AAPL during the peak of the bull market,  I used two scenarios. One was a realistic growth rate of 14.3% and the other was a euphoric rate that many people wanted me to use which was 22%.  The intrinsic value came out to approximately $130 and $190 respectively.

Now that things have settled down substantially, the 14.3% FCF growth rate was actually the smart one to use. In this fairly valued market, using 15% FCF growth rate is still the most realistic figure.

Also, since 2008 was hard for every company, I’ll readjust the FCF of AAPL to balance out the one year recession. With a discount rate of 9% and growth rate of 15% the intrinsic value comes out to $146.22. Fairly valued as the current price is about 13% above my estimate.

AAPL Price & Value Graph

Is Apple a Buy?

Buffett has said that it is much better to buy a good company at a fair price rather than a fair company at a good price, but my performance to date and results from screens and tests I’ve performed show that maybe Buffett got it backwards.

AAPL may be a great company, but paying fair value for the business will not produce the out-sized returns that you are probably looking for. For a long term passive portfolio, it will probably work out well, but to compound your money at a better rate, there are still better opportunities than its current price.

From it’s lows, AAPL is up 111%. The stocks I mentioned on this blog are up just as much, if not further, and have far for upside potential.

As a company AAPL is definitely awesome. As an investment, the price does not have enough of a margin of safety to preserve capital in the case there is an another unexpected disaster.

Disclosure

Previously held AAPL. No positions at time of writing.

ValueVision Inc (VVTV) Q3 Updated Business Valuation

This post is an update to ValueVision Inc (VVTV) according to the latest 10-Q filing on Dec 11,2008.

Click here to read the first post on VVTV to get the background information and valuation numbers as I will be skipping some sections that I feel have not changed.

Business Developments

As hoped, VVTV is now planning to sell itself as one of its strategic options. Considering the business, competition, environment and management including the board, this is a good move. There hasn’t been any further news relating to this sale, but it seems like there are interested buyers out there.

Growth Strategy

As I stated in the previous post, my reason for looking into ValueVision is based on the assumption that the company is sold off or liquidated. I am therefore assuming the entire retail business will provide 0% growth for the business, however, I am not implying they won’t be making any money off retail. The cash from retail should just cover their high fixed operating costs.

The growth strategy and my thoughts remain the same as the previous post.

Risks

Although the current price has probably factored in most of the information, a downside risk still remains. The risk related to uncertainty aspects include:

  • High management turnover and lack of leadership
  • GE Equity redeemable preferred stock redemption date of March 8, 2009
  • Failure to sell itself to potential buyers
  • Renegotiation of cable contracts which is due to expire on Dec 31, 2008

Financial Statement Updated Numbers

The 3rd quarter numbers are compared to the previous quarter rather than a year ago as a one year comparison does not provide a good indication of the business at the moment.

My perspective is that the balance sheet is clean, but the future is bleak and uncertain.

Numbers compared to the previous quarter:

Balance Sheet

  • Cash & Equivalents up 15.6%
  • Short term investments down 54.3%
  • Accounts receivables down 22.5%
  • Inventories up 26.7%
  • Accounts payable up 59.8%
  • Total current liabilities up 29.7%
    • increase due to accounts payable

Income Statement

  • Net sales down 12%
  • Cost of Sales down 13%
    • Sales and COGS are both down the same amount which is a good thing from an accounting point of view. If sales goes down but COGS goes up or COGS is up more than sales, it is a big warning sign for fishy accounting.
  • CEO transition cost of $1.8 million. Statements mention it is a one off charge, but it seems like this line is often added as CEO turnover rate is very high. If management stabilizes, about $0.06 per share should be added back to net income.
  • Other expenses came up as $969,000, which is due to selling securities at a loss. No cash taken out of the bank to pay for this expense.

Statement of Cash Flows

  • Collection of accounts receivables up 23%
  • Cash used for inventory up 62% but still positive
  • Cash from operations up 66%
  • Cash increase of 16%

Valuation

With the numbers from the 3rd quarter statement, valuation numbers have been updated from the previous post.

  1. Sales from Full Time Equivalent households (FTE; households receiving 24hr programming)
  2. Net Net Working Capital and tangible assets

Sales Per FTE

A quick way to look at VVTV is by their net sales per FTE. VVTV reaches 72 million households with the average net sales being $6.92 per household, , down from $7.92 in the previous quarter. But we took this into consideration last time by assuming a drastic consumer contraction and took a low, yet possible number of $4 net sales per household. This still yeilds a value of $288 million (4×72=288) to the network, which is now 21 times more than its current $13.46 million market cap.

Net Net Working Capital and Tangible Assets

Net Net Working Capital = Cash and short-term investments + (0.75 * accounts receivable) + (0.5 * inventory) – total liabilities

(Value in millions except share price) 7-Nov 17-Dec
Cash and short term equivalents $59.72 $56.44
75% of Accounts receivable $41.98 $32.38
50% of Inventory $27.82 $35.26
Total Liabilities $73.97 $93.17
NNWC $55.55 mil /$1.65 per share
$30.92 mil /$0.92 per share
(Valuable assets)
FCC (Boston TV station) $31.94 $31.94
NBC License Agreement $8.99 $8.19
Property $20.00 $20.00
Assets + NNWC $116.48 mil /$3.47 per share $91.05 mil /$2.71 per share
Diluted shares outstanding 33.57 33.59
Market Cap $17.80 $13.46
Share price $0.53 $0.40

ValueVision is currently being sold for 43% of its NNWC value compared to 32% for last quarter. The NNWC per share value is now $0.92 compared to the stock price of $0.40.

However, the NNWC does not include ValueVision’s main assets which is its FCC license, NBC license and its owned property.

Let’s assume the property of ValueVision was affected by the housing crisis by 20%, with the reason given in the first post. The office real estate in Minnesota is then given a value of $20 million. Add in the FCC, NBC license and property to NNWC to get a value of $2.71 per share. The current price is still 15% to its NNWC and asset value.

However, one thing we should consider is that this price only applies if the company is sold this instant. Cash, inventory, receivables and liabilities are variable which can either increase the NNWC or reduce it.

Therefore, if we look at a value that is independent of these liquid assets by only considering its licenses and buildings, a hard conservative value is $60.13 million which is still 4.4x more than its current market price.

Conclusion

The NNWC value has decreased, but the underlying assets still remain the same. There are no alarming indicators in the statements and the 66% margin of safety I applied before purchasing has cushioned the recent price decline but still allows for a very good potential reward.

However, before making a purchase, consider the additional risks outlined above.

Disclosure

I hold positions of VVTV at the time of writing

[tags]stock analysis, intrinsic value, valuevision, net net, VVTV [/tags]

Morningstar Vs Old School Fair Value Estimation

Until Nov 21, you have access to all the premium content on Morningstar. Quickly sign up (no credit card required) or log in now! Go go go.

Thanks to Contrarian Value Investing for the notice.

Just out of curiosity, I was checking out the Morningstar fair values for my companies and surprisingly, they were all very close, minus AEO. So just for fun, here is a comparison of the intrinsic values between the companies I have written about on this blog. Small caps are not covered by Morningstar, so I have left them out.

(Morningstar fair value estimates as of Nov 19, 2008)

Morningstar vs Old School Value

ETN (published Nov 17, 2008)

Morningstar: $81 | OSV: $77

DPS (published Oct 28, 2008)

Morningstar: $28 | OSV:$25-$32

KSWS (published April 16, 2008)

Morningstar: $19 | OSV: $19.86

AEO (published March 11,2008)

Morningstar $22 | OSV: $37.37

So in the spirit of having some fun with intrinsic value, it doesn’t seem like I need to bother with a premium Morningstar membership. I get pretty much the same quantitative assumptions and you can too starting from only $6.95.

[tags]morningstar, intrinsic value, valuation, spreadsheet, ksws, aeo, dps, etn,  [/tags]

Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) Spinoff

In part four of the series on special situations, I’ll briefly present a recent spinoff. Dr Pepper Snapple.

This series is based on the book You can be a stock market genius! so for additional information, be sure to read it yourself.

New here? Catch up on the series.

Part 1: Odd Lot Tenders

Part 2: Book review on You can be a stock market genius!

Part 3: Spinoffs

As mentioned in part 3, a spinoff presents exceptional opportunities as it is immediately under selling pressure while the value of the spinoff is still not realized.

A recent spinoff that I have been watching is Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS). DPS is the third largest beverage company by market share behind Coca Cola and Pepsi. In terms of its business, I would think it offers just as much stability and predictability as KO and PEP but always comes in 2nd or 3rd best. Never the leader. Never will be.

Recommended Analysis By Fellow Bloggers

I won’t be going into all the business aspects but will provide a simple valuation of what I think could be the value. For a more detailed look at the business, My Value Idea and Future Blind have already presented an excellent analysis of DPS. (My Value Idea wrote 3 parts to DPS). Greenlight Capital also gives a brief mention of DPS in their letter to investors on pg 5 and 6.

Valuing Dr Pepper Snapple

The difficulty with calculating an intrinsic value for spinoffs is that there isn’t enough detailed financial details to try and come up with something concrete. So assuming you’ve read a few of the mentioned posts, let me try and apply some very simple numbers together and see where it takes us.

Looking at the numbers, we see that DPS compared to the competition looks cheaper. The only factor is the CROIC, where it seems to be performing like a bottler. Does this imply that DPS is unable to translate investments into cash? Maybe.

From one of My Value Idea’s post he mentions that DPS should be priced cheaper than Coca Cola but more than the bottling operations of Coca Cola Enterprises. Pondering on this, this is actually a very good way to look at it since DPS runs both the concentrate and bottling and distribution business yet won’t be able beat Coke in its distribution method and margins.

With that in mind, I would say that a P/E range of 11 to 14 is reasonable given I don’t believe the franchise and brands to be as strong as Coke or Pepsi. This gives a price range of $25-$32 using 2007 EPS of $2 and adding back in one time expense to give an EPS of $2.28.

Be wary that I came up with this range without giving much thought about the future of the business. So basically, assuming 0% growth, I am valuing DPS at $25-$32 today. It’s currently trading at $21.68 which is only around a 14% discount to the low end.

Pricewise, it’s not at a big enough margin of safety for me to consider purchasing. I would definitely like to see it at $13 or $15 to offset my concerns about how the bottling ownership affects the returns and to combat my simplicity and rash calculations. But when looking at the recent restructuring, which will cut costs, moat and predictability it seems like a worthy candidate with a price tag labeled as value.

It could be an alternative to KO and PEP. Any thoughts?

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentions.

[tags]dps, Special Situation, spinoff,intrinsic value, pep, ko[/tags]

Free 5YR DCF Fair Value Investment Spreadsheet

Although finding great, stable companies with more than 10 years of historical data to examine is ideal, not all companies fall into this category. A vast majority of companies fall into the category of around 5 years of operational history. This free investment spreadsheet which is a modification of the free 10 year investment spreadsheet calculates the fair value of a company based on the past 5 years of available data from Morningstar and other sources. I’ll also take you through the steps to modify the spreadsheet yourself so that you can apply it to other databases other than Morningstar.

Changes to the Investing Spreadsheet

  • Multi yearperformance is calculated based on timeframes over the past 5 years.
  • Modified the forecasted EPS formula in the Benjamin Graham formula.

How To Fix The #DIV/0! Error

For companies such as DLB with 4 years of data instead of the required 5, you will get #DIV/0! errors because Excel is trying to calculate the median with invalid numbers.

DIV error

To overcome this, you simply have to restate the cell ranges by double clicking and then changing the range from =MEDIAN(B41:J41) to where there are actual values. In the case of DLB, this would be =MEDIAN(F41,I41;J41).

Median Edit

The screenshot shows the edit for the third row, but you would want to do it for the first row and then just grab the corner and drag it down to apply it to all cells.

Median edit 2

You can actually apply this method for the 10yr intrinsic value spreadsheet instead of downloading this one.

How To Customize The Spreadsheet

The stock investment spreadsheet utilizes an excel add-in called SMF (Stock Market Function) and in order to really understand how it works, you would have to follow the code and the comments within, but I’ll go over the main function.

(If you want further spreadsheets and templates with this add-in, visit the Yahoo page and navigate to the files section)

In the spreadsheets, the data in the statements tab is retrieved from Morningstar with the =RCHGetTableCell() function. Simply, this grabs the value from the cell of the table.

Currently the formula in the spreadsheet is: =RCHGetTableCell(“http://quicktake.morningstar.com/Stock/ Income10.asp?Symbol=”&Ticker, 2, “Fiscal Year-End:”, “>Revenue”)

To grab data from another site such as Yahoo Finance Australia for Telstra, I could go to the balance sheet page and then edit the function to display the cash by entering the following

=RCHGetTableCell(“http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/abs?s=”&Ticker, 1, “PERIOD ENDING”, “>Cash”) where the ticker entered into the spreadsheet would be TLS.AX.

This command does the following:

  • points to the page http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q/abs?s=TLS.AX
  • selects the table that contains the exact phrase “PERIOD ENDING”
  • selects the very first cell right after the cell containing the exact phrase “CASH” which is characterised by the > sign.

To retrieve the next value from the table, you would simply change the 1 to 2 to get the second cell.

Do this method for all rows and cells. I just found out it was rharmelink from the SMF Group that created the 10 year statement template for Morningstar. (Just giving credit to the proper person)

To retrieve other information such as stock prices, historical prices, charts etc, you would use the other functions mentioned in the documentation.

I could go over the other useful functions but I think it’s pretty easy to figure out and will leave it up to you unless a number of readers request it specifically.

How to Install

A step by step guide is provided in the full spreadsheet installation guide.

IMPORTANT

Please read the guide and FAQ section. To date, I’ve been spending hours helping people with simple excel issues on a free product rather than anything spreadsheet related.

So for all excel and install problems, place all questions in the comment sections below. That way I won’t have to answer the same question again and again.

Download The Free 5Yr Investment Spreadsheet

5 Year Fair Value Stock Investment Spreadsheet

Get a cheap yet the best DCF Valuation spreadsheet which includes more calculations, graphs and tools.

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K-Tron (KTII) Business Valuation

Gone are the days where people wearing coats, gloves and nets in their hair, stood in a line counting/measuring and packaging nuts & bolts, grain, chemical, pills, food etc.

Nowadays, factories, companies, assembly lines all automate for precision and efficiency. How? With feeders,conveying systems and other related equipments handling bulk solids. I find the business boring don’t you? Yet, I am excited by this boredom.

Business Summary

K-Tron is engaged in one principal business segment, which is material handling equipment and systems, and their operations are conducted largely through subsidiary companies. They design, produce, market and service material handling equipment and systems.

Business is operated through two separate business lines;
- The Process Group which focuses primarily on feeding and pneumatic conveying equipment.
- The Size Reduction Group which concentrates on size reduction equipment, conveying systems and screening equipment.

The Process Group (excerpts from the 2007 annual report)
The feeding equipment, which is sold under the K-Tron Feeders brand, controls the flow of materials into a manufacturing process by weight (known as gravimetric feeding) or by volume (known as volumetric feeding) and is used in many different industries, including the plastics compounding, food, chemical and pharmaceutical industries.

The pneumatic conveying equipment, which is sold under the Premier Pneumatics brand, addresses a broad range of pneumatic conveying applications that involve the handling of bulk solids. K-Tron Premier Pneumatics equipment and systems transport bulk solids from one point to another point with negative pressure (known as vacuum conveying) or with positive pressure (known as pressure conveying) and are used in many industries, including those served by the K-Tron Feeders brand.

Servicing and Parts is also a part of the Process Group where a global service network responds to customer calls within 24 hours almost anywhere in the world. K-Tron also sell parts to customers, and their service and parts business associated with sales of the equipment is an important source of revenue.

The K-Tron Electronics division produces and tests electronic assemblies. The design and production of products sold by K-Tron is done in house.

Size Reduction Group (excerpts from the 2007 annual report)
The subsidiaries that make up the Size Reduction Group are Pennsylvania Crusher Corporation, Jeffrey Specialty Equipment Corporation, Gundlach Equipment Corporation, Rader Companies. All of these companies design, manufacture, market and sell size reduction equipment, such as hammermills, wood hogs and double roll crushers. This equipment is used to resize various materials to a given smaller size, and the principal industries served are the power generation, coal and minerals mining, pulp and paper and wood and forest products industries

Growth Strategy

I am confident in saying that K-Tron is as close to recession proof as they come. Although it isn’t a company that directly produces and sells necessities such as food, medicine, toilet paper etc, companies require feeders and conveyors to transport and control materials. People may shy away from Italian handbags and stallions, but food, pharmaceutical and chemicals are required by consumers. Due to this, look at the lack of correlation between K-Tron and the market. Additionally, for the past 6 years, the stock has been steadily moving on up without much notice. Well actually, the stock has been rocketing upwards and I don’t see any big firms or analysts covering K-Tron yet. With an average volume of 6000-8000, it is a very thinly traded and undiscovered company.

K-Tron generated 36%, 34% and 38% of their sales overseas in 2007, 2006, 2005, mainly in Europe, with operations and manufacturing facilities in the United States, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and China and sales and service offices and representatives in more than 60 countries. They have expanded into China by purchasing certain assets of Wuzi Chenghao Machinery Co, a privately owned Chinese company in March 2007 that is targeted at the domestic plastics compounding and injection molding markets in China. This shows that K-Tron acts on its goal of diversifying into complementary products and new markets.

Growth was partly organic and partly driven by acquistions but excluding acquisitions, in 2007, K-Tron was able to deliver a 25.6% increase in revenue and 70.6% in operating income from their Process Group but The Size Reduction Group increased slightly.

“Demand is strong and K-Tron entered 2008 with its biggest backlog in its operating history.”

Competitive Position

K-Tron has complete control over the design and manufacture of its own weighing, mechanical and control systems. Their intellectual property as well as the ability to completely custom make solutions is a great plus. Holding more than 98 patents for weighing, mechanical and control technologies and their application to bulk solids handling further helps the cause, but it is stated in the annual report that even though patents are expected to expire soon, it should not have any adverse affect on the business.

K-Tron is considered to be the leading producer of feeders and related equipment primarily because of the use of digital control technology and digital weighing technology, their development of mechanical design improvements to products and extensive knowledge of material handling applications.

Both the feeding and conveying equipment industry have strong competition but because of the numerous types of applications and the requirement of specialized equipment to suit each need, these niche type applications provide plenty of business opportunities which K-Tron can capitalize.

For a company its size, it has a surprisingly wide moat. With its large distribution and operations base spanning 60 countries, K-Tron is able to gain traction to penetrate into different markets. Also, due to the nature of the business, once a system has been either sold or custom designed, there is a high switching cost and most probably lots of anguish by the customer should they try to switch their equipment to another company. This also leads to a high barrier of entry. I believe that companies that purchase feeder and conveyors would pay the extra money to stick with the knowledge that they are in good hands.

Risks

As boring as the business seems, there are still some risks involved but nothing overly worrisome such as a rapid industry, lack of moat or no cash. Competition is always a factor, but a specialized niche market won’t attract the big fish. K-Tron factors this in by acquiring companies both locally and overseas.

As an industrial capital goods supplier, cyclicity may be an issue. During economic contraction or recession, demand would decrease. However, as intelligent investors, we know that contractions come and go, and it is the long haul that is important.

The more important risk is the way K-Tron also tends to grow by acquiring businesses. The thing is, acquisitions don’t always work. Integrating two companies is a difficult process and if the two companies aren’t synergised, it could be a mess. Look at the mess Gary Forsee made at Sprint with the Nextel merger.

Management

Very high insider ownership. The CEO, Edward Cloues, owns 271k shares totalling 9.8% of the company. Total insider ownership comes out to 16.31%. It’s safe to assume that insiders definitely want to create shareholder wealth and their visions are aligned.

For 2007, the CEO was paid a total of $1.5 million, but compared to the revenue of $202 million he helped orchestrate, I believe that he is on the “value” side of CEO pay rates with his pay being at 0.7% of 2007 revenue. Also, Im glad to see the company isn’t paying out money for personal yachts etc. I just can’t stand to see companies use shareholder money for a private jet or cruiseliner.

(Due to the lack of information available for K-Tron, I was not able to find any transcripts or conference calls to get additional information)

Valuation

Financially, K-Tron has some very impressive numbers. For the past 10 years the average numbers were as follows; gross margins constantly above 40%, operating margins around 10%, ROA at 8% and ROE at 20% and CROIC at 11.6% which is higher than the current 6% interest on debt they are paying. Meaning, K-Tron was able to make around 11c cash for every dollar invested.

Refer to the image below to see the financial performance for KTII from my intrinsic value spreadsheet.

For KTII, Morningstar has the wrong values for the number of shares outstanding so I corrected the numbers from those in the annual report to get the correct historical shares outstanding.



10 years of data shows me that K-Tron has been able to generate FCF at 30% annually. Will it be able to continue? I don’t know, but considering that K-Tron is a boring business without too much “change” in the industry, I don’t see why it can’t grow at 23%. Revenues have been growing at 60% year over year and other growth aspects are excellent.

Price wise, it seems like it is currently trading at a 38% discount to its intrinsic value. Basically, selling at roughly 60c to the dollar. Not the 50c that I like, but a good, stable, long term business at 60c sounds pretty good to me. Refer to the Wrigley’s example to see why Wrigley’s would have been a good investment if you were long from the early stages.

(Ben Graham tells me that he thinks that K-Tron is worth $287. )

However, don’t let the share price of $138 throw you off, the market cap is only $375 million so there is plenty of growth available.

Opinion

The past 6 years have been incredible for K-Tron, yet there are no analysts following the stock. High stock price and low number of shares may be a reason why K-Tron doesn’t have the recognition it well deserves but I believe that K-Tron has the capacity and ability to hit the radars of the big boys.

With so little information available on K-Tron, I’ll be providing updates when I can but this is a company that bores me to sleep. At least when I wake up in 5 years, I’ll be very happy.

So far I have found 2 blogs who also posted something on K-Tron.

  1. Everyday Finance; K-Tron: A Diamond in the Rough You’ve Never Heard of.
  2. Mongaup Investing; K-Tron (KTII) (Price: $138, Intrinsic Value: $165).

This blog shows KTII to be 52% overpriced which I find hard to believe after looking at their other calculations.

Disclosure: I own shares of K-Tron