Posts Tagged ‘Special Situation’

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Puget Energy Merger Approved and Review

The Puget Energy merger has finally been approved on December 30, 2008. After more than 1 year since I first got wind of this deal, the entire deal is expected to close in 2 weeks for $30 cash. Surprisingly, PSD is still trading at a discount to its final closing price. It is currently at $27.50. This still leaves room for a 9% gain with all uncertainty eliminated..

In my last post on PSD, let’s take a step back and review what happened, how I went about doing things, what went right and what went wrong.

Due Diligence

Here is a list of what was involved in my due diligence of PSD. A reference for new readers and future mergers.

A. Before purchasing any shares the important thing is that the conditions and state of the merger satisfies the following checklist. Also see this post to get started if interested in mergers.

  1. Due diligence by all parties
  2. Financing and regulator approval
  3. Get preliminary shareholder sentiment (or controlling shareholder approval)
  4. Obtain regulator (SEC, FCC, any and all) approval
  5. Get final shareholder approval at a meeting called for that purpose
  6. Insiders continually vesting or buying shares

B. Throughout the past 3 months of following the deal closely, I have been keeping up to date with all filings submitted by PSD to the SEC via RSS.

C. Read each annual report and quarterly report since the merger announcement to see whether there were any changes in the verbiage. Also read the proxy and other documents to understand the structure of the deal. This was a cash deal so it was straightforward.

D. I also spoke directly with investor relations of PSD and got the impression that she was not worried about the deal at all.

E. Documented my reasoning and thoughts so that I had something to refer back to and remind myself if the price went down and I started getting emotional.

F. Went to the Washington UTC website and quickly browsed and read the concluding statements of the filing documents of involved parties. This part was what helped me drown out noise, stay focused and to draw up conclusions and scenarios.

G. Assign odds to the merger. If you don’t know what the odds of winning are, don’t even consider playing.

What Went Right

I must say that I was lucky with this deal. Lucky because utility merger approvals are very unpredictable with lots of opposition, lucky because Washington State has a history or killing deals at the last minute, lucky because the markets ignored the facts and depressed the prices heavily in our favor.

It was also a good thing that this deal was in my backyard and I had knowledge of the geography and makeup of the state and its affairs. Had PSD been in another state, my level of uncertainty would have been much higher. So if a merger is announced in your home state, always be sure to keep your eye on it. This is where you have home court advantage and something Wall Street will never know.

Wall Street not knowing = fear and uncertainty in the markets = good chance to pick up deals.

Add to that the buyer being an Australian company I was familiar with and it made the perfect arbitrage for me in 2008.

What Went Wrong

I had originally assumed the merger would take a week or so to close but I was completely off on this part. It ended up being 2 1/2 months. Although the upside gain more than compensated for the time, the period in which cash was held up was far too long and led me to miss out on better buying opportunities of SCHN (up 100%) and HANS (up 40%) which I had on my watch list.

What I will do differently next time is to think about the min and max time frame for completion just as we think about the min and max value of a company.

Asset Allocation

Back in September I had bought shares and just after the crash I sold it all while still ahead because I wanted to buy something else that got hammered.

Eventually the price went lower to its pre merger levels and I bought again, more this time. A couple weeks later, it went down to 10% below my purchase price on no news and I could sense people and some readers getting nervous. I doubled down at this point by selling my worst ideas. I didn’t want to make the same mistake I made with the Aquila merger by not investing enough to leave a decent profit after fees and taxes.

Puget Energy Coverage Closed at Old School Value

I am glad to say that on the last trading day of 2008, the announcement has lifted my sagging portfolio to a reasonable finish. The arbitrage helped keep my portfolio steady during the wild volatility as well as adding a nice return to my performance without having to speculate.

With 2009 expected to be worse than what we are going through now, I expect mergers to slow down further and fail more often. My decision to be involved in one merger at a time and focus on details has turned out to be safe and I will stick to this in the future.

Disclosure

I own shares of PSD at time of writing

[tags]PSD, special situation, mergers, arbitrage[/tags]

Capital Crossing Preferred (CCPCN) and HealthShares ETF Liquidation

I’m chartering into inexperienced waters with this topic, so I hope people will provide comments if they have experience with investing in actual liquidations. In this post, I’ll be discussing 2 liquidations. Capital Crossing Preferred Corporation (CCPCN) and HealthShares Exchange-Traded Funds.

Quick Definition

For those unfamiliar, a liquidation is a process where a company is brought to an end. It converts all of its assets into cash. That is, they sell all positions in their portfolios, sell their real estate, inventory, desks, chairs and anything else that may have cash value. Remember how the value of a company is the sum of its future cash flows as well as its shareholders equity? In a liquidation, since there is no more future cash flow, a piece of the shareholders equity is what we are entitled to received.

Capital Crossing Preferred Corporation (CCPCN) Liquidation

(Capital Crossing Preferred Corporation is an entity of Capital Crossing.)

I stumbled upon Capital Crossing Preferred Corporation (CCPCN) on the news that CCPCN (the preferred stock) is being called for a liquidation price of $25 cash on Dec 1, 2008. It’s closing price today was $23.75.

There is still a 5% spread remaining but I am not sure whether the shares will be tradeable on the actual call date. If it is, a guaranteed 5% with zero risk in 1 day would definitely be fantastic. The annualized gain would be astronomical even after fees.

From the 8-K filing on Oct 31, 2008

On October 27, 2008, the Board of Directors of Capital Crossing Preferred Corporation unanimously approved, subject to obtaining the approval of the Office of Thrift Supervision to the extent required by law or regulation or policy of the OTS, the voluntary complete liquidation and dissolution of the Corporation as being advisable and in the best interests of the Corporation’s stockholders and adopted a Plan of Complete Liquidation and Dissolution of the Corporation.

….

On or before December 1, 2008, the Corporation intends to declare one or more liquidating distributions in cash to the holders of shares of Series D Preferred Stock representing the full liquidation preference on the Series D Preferred Stock of $25.00 per share, plus any accrued but unpaid dividends thereon from the beginning of the dividend period in which the liquidation occurs to the date of liquidation.

CCPCN Liquidation Probability

I assume that even liquidations should be approached like merger arbitrage, except that the probabilities are much higher.

Mergers get cancelled for all sorts of reasons, but I’ve never heard of shareholders or external factors preventing a liquidation if the board has already approved it.

Here is an excerpt from the 10-Q filing on Nov 14,2008.

Since Capital Crossing Preferred is a subsidiary of Lehman Bank, federal bank regulatory authorities will have the right to examine it and its activities and under certain circumstances, to impose restrictions on Lehman Bank or Capital Crossing Preferred which could impact Capital Crossing Preferred’s ability to conduct its business according to its business objectives. For instance, if Lehman Bank’s regulators determine that Lehman Bank’s relationship to Capital Crossing Preferred results in an unsafe and unsound banking practice, the regulators could restrict Capital Crossing Preferred’s ability to transfer assets, to make distributions to its stockholders or even require Lehman Bank to sever its relationship with or divest its ownership interest in Capital Crossing Preferred.

In the end, it seems like the company has acknowledged it would be better off liquidating. So the chances of this going through is very high.

It’s a shame I’m potentially missing out on a nice gain with virtually no risk, but I’ll use this as a learning tool for future special situations.

You can read a news article on CCPCN here. Moving onto HealthShares.

HealthShares Exchange-Traded Funds Liquidation

It seems like ETF liquidations are less profitable as they are usually priced very close to their Net Asset Value (NAV). The only potential reward is if the ETF market price is below the funds NAV.

(Net Asset Value is the Net Assets of the Fund divided by shares outstanding)

Here’s a snippet of the news:

The Board of Directors of HealthShares™, Inc. a registered investment company, today announced that it has determined to liquidate the Company’s four underlying investment portfolios effective December 31, 2008 and subsequently dissolve the Company.

….

The Board also carefully considered current market conditions, the inability of the Funds to attract significant market interest since their inception, their future viability as well as their prospects for growth in the Funds’ assets in the foreseeable future, and thereafter determined that it was advisable and in the best interests of the Funds and their shareholders to liquidate the Funds.

ETF’s to be Liquidated

The funds that will be liquidated are as follows:

  • HealthShares™ Cancer Exchange-Traded Fund (HHK)
  • HealthShares™ European Drugs Exchange-Traded Fund (HRJ)
  • HealthShares™ Diagnostics Exchange-Traded Fund (HHD)
  • HealthShares™ Drug Discovery Tools Exchange-Traded Fund (HHV)

December 23, 2008 is the last day of trading for the shares and all trading will halt on December 24, 2008.

Return Percentage

Comparing the market price and NAV for each of the ETF’s

HHK

Market Price (11/26/2008) 23.99
NAV (11/26/2008) 24.36

HRI

Market Price (11/26/2008) 15.26
NAV (11/26/2008) 14.79

HHD

Market Price (11/26/2008) 20.31
NAV (11/26/2008) 20.53

HHV

Market Price (11/26/2008) 21.44
NAV (11/26/2008) 22.38

As you can see, HHV seems to be the only candidate with a 4.38% spread but who knows how that will change over the next 3 weeks.

Risks

An ETF liqudiation is tricky because it acts much like a stock, except it holds other disadvantages.

  1. When the managers liquidate the portfolios, expenses go up
  2. Capital gains taxes that needs to be paid
  3. Unlike regular risk arbitrage, I can’t think of a way to hedge

Conclusion

Company liquidations can be very profitable if you are aware of the news.

ETF liquidations are barely worth the effort unless there is a difference between market price and NAV close to the end of trading deadline.

Disclosure

No positions in any stocks mentioned at time of writing

[tags]CCPCN, heatlhshares, etf, liquidation, special situation[/tags]

Profit from Special Situations – Risk Arbitrage

In part five of the series on special situations, I’ll briefly present the idea of risk (or merger) arbitrage.

This series is based on the book You can be a stock market genius! so for additional information, be sure to read it yourself.

New here? Catch up on the series.

Part 1: Odd Lot Tenders
Part 2: Book review on You can be a stock market genius!
Part 3: Spinoffs
Part 4: A Look at Dr Pepper Snapple

Quick Brush Up

There is no point in buying a stock speculating that the company will be taken over. Risk arbitrage, which I will just refer to as arbitrage, involves the purchase of a stock after the merger announcement.

The book quickly gets to the point and tells the reader to avoid arbitrage because of the high levels of uncertainty involved in the process. However, I would like to add that by waiting and choosing wisely, you will be able to make very good gains off low risk.

The basics and overview can be found in an earlier post here. It covers topics such as why you should consider arbitrage in your investing strategy, the types of homework you should do, what to look for and the risk involved.

Previous Arbitrage

So far, I’ve gone through three arbitrage opportunities in this blog. Aquila, Jazz Technologies and currently Puget Energy. I eeked out a tiny profit with Aquila and documented a vital mistake with this transaction, successfully did not partake in the Jazz merger due to the illiquidity and stock for stock condition, and would like to see the Pugest Energy merger close out soon.

Keep Things Simple

There are also different forms of arbitrage.

  • Cash only transactions where stock is paid for in cash
  • Stock for stock where the shareholders are given stock of the other company
  • Partial stock where a percentage of the share is converted to stock and cash
  • Purchase merger securities (the Greenblatt recommends looking into warrants)

Focus On This Checklist (source: fwallstreet.com)

Before you invest any cash, you should be able answer all the items below.

  1. Due diligence by both parties
  2. Financing and regulator approval
  3. Get preliminary shareholder sentiment (or controlling shareholder approval)
  4. Obtain regulator (SEC, FCC, any and all) approval
  5. Get final shareholder approval at a meeting called for that purpose
  6. Insiders continually vesting or buying shares

Risks to Think About

  • Calculate the potential upside and downside vs time. In the PSD merger, I’ve given the chance of success 90% with a gain of around 25% within 1 month. This is excellent odds.
  • Unpredictability: Anything can happen in mergers. Financing can break down at the last minute, the market can go crazy and take everyone with them, earthquakes could ruin the operation of the business  etc etc.
  • Allocate assets accordingly depending on your odds.
  • Taxes will have to be paid because this is a short term strategy. Consider this when you calculate gains.

But most of all, stick to investing in solid companies if you are unsure or feel uneasy with the whole notion.

Disclosure: Long PSD

[tags]arbitrage, special situation, PSD [/tags]

Community Against Puget Energy (PSD) Merger?

Before I begin, let me start by saying that if you are invested in this PSD arbitrage and feel uneasy about the press Puget Energy has been receiving, I encourage you to sell out. You’ll still end up with a profit now and more comfortable nights.

People’s Concerns Over a Local Movement

Over at Seeking Alpha where my post was published, people have been commenting on the local counties wanting to start up their own Public Utility District (PUD) which would provide service at a lower rate than to Puget Sound Energy. I replied to a comment regarding this on the previous post.

Press Related to the PUD

Here is an article from the Seattle Times endorsing the local Public Utility District (PUD) and another by Crosscut and one more from the Whidbey News Times.

These three articles all have one thing in common. They only talk about the possibility of the PUD and what it would bring. No mention of any protests against the merger. What these local people want is lower rates. I would assume most don’t even know the details of the buyout. Classic case of noise interference.

Digging Around

So instead of just sitting around, I did some more digging to see what I could come up with.

On May 6, a UTC press release stated the following

“The commission has received 1,513 public comments to date on the proposed merger – 20 in favor, 48 undecided and 1,445 opposed. The UTC also has received about 2,854 public comments on the rate-hike request – 27 in favor, 73 undecided and 2,754 opposed.”

On September 25, another press release announced the approval of the rate increase.

Then on October 8, it was annouced that electricity rates would decrease by 3% while natural gas bills would increase 5%. This press release also mentioned another opposition from the public.

“The commission received 6,686 public comments on the PSE proposed rate hike – 12 in favor, 6,552 opposed and 122 undecided.”

This brings me to an interesting and vital point. There were over 9000 people opposed to the rate increase compared to the 32 in favor. YET, the rate increase was approved. Why and how? Because it’s in line with market prices and PSD meets the required no-harm standard and PSD have assured the UTC that service will remain just as good. Even Northwest Natural’s gas increase of 19% was approved.

There is also a worry that the company is being bought by foreigners but it will remain locally governed, managed and run.

Concern at the Back of my Mind

The only concern I have is related to the board members of the UTC. The three members that make up the board are appointees of Gov. Christine Gregoire and because she is up for re-election, the board may make a decision to make her look good. If politics gets involved, who knows how this will turn out..

Up till now, this has been my interpretation, but I also want to hear it as it is so I’ve scheduled a call with PSD investor relations today. I’ll share it when I get the chance.

Disclosure: I own PSD at the time of this writing

[tags]PSD, UTC, PSE, merger, arbitrage, special situation, puget sound [/tags]

Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS) Spinoff

In part four of the series on special situations, I’ll briefly present a recent spinoff. Dr Pepper Snapple.

This series is based on the book You can be a stock market genius! so for additional information, be sure to read it yourself.

New here? Catch up on the series.

Part 1: Odd Lot Tenders

Part 2: Book review on You can be a stock market genius!

Part 3: Spinoffs

As mentioned in part 3, a spinoff presents exceptional opportunities as it is immediately under selling pressure while the value of the spinoff is still not realized.

A recent spinoff that I have been watching is Dr Pepper Snapple (DPS). DPS is the third largest beverage company by market share behind Coca Cola and Pepsi. In terms of its business, I would think it offers just as much stability and predictability as KO and PEP but always comes in 2nd or 3rd best. Never the leader. Never will be.

Recommended Analysis By Fellow Bloggers

I won’t be going into all the business aspects but will provide a simple valuation of what I think could be the value. For a more detailed look at the business, My Value Idea and Future Blind have already presented an excellent analysis of DPS. (My Value Idea wrote 3 parts to DPS). Greenlight Capital also gives a brief mention of DPS in their letter to investors on pg 5 and 6.

Valuing Dr Pepper Snapple

The difficulty with calculating an intrinsic value for spinoffs is that there isn’t enough detailed financial details to try and come up with something concrete. So assuming you’ve read a few of the mentioned posts, let me try and apply some very simple numbers together and see where it takes us.

Looking at the numbers, we see that DPS compared to the competition looks cheaper. The only factor is the CROIC, where it seems to be performing like a bottler. Does this imply that DPS is unable to translate investments into cash? Maybe.

From one of My Value Idea’s post he mentions that DPS should be priced cheaper than Coca Cola but more than the bottling operations of Coca Cola Enterprises. Pondering on this, this is actually a very good way to look at it since DPS runs both the concentrate and bottling and distribution business yet won’t be able beat Coke in its distribution method and margins.

With that in mind, I would say that a P/E range of 11 to 14 is reasonable given I don’t believe the franchise and brands to be as strong as Coke or Pepsi. This gives a price range of $25-$32 using 2007 EPS of $2 and adding back in one time expense to give an EPS of $2.28.

Be wary that I came up with this range without giving much thought about the future of the business. So basically, assuming 0% growth, I am valuing DPS at $25-$32 today. It’s currently trading at $21.68 which is only around a 14% discount to the low end.

Pricewise, it’s not at a big enough margin of safety for me to consider purchasing. I would definitely like to see it at $13 or $15 to offset my concerns about how the bottling ownership affects the returns and to combat my simplicity and rash calculations. But when looking at the recent restructuring, which will cut costs, moat and predictability it seems like a worthy candidate with a price tag labeled as value.

It could be an alternative to KO and PEP. Any thoughts?

Disclosure: No positions in any stocks mentions.

[tags]dps, Special Situation, spinoff,intrinsic value, pep, ko[/tags]

Profit From Special Situations – Spinoffs

In part three of the series on special situations, where the little guys have the advantage over the big guys, we’ll be taking a look at spinoffs. This series is based on the book You can be a stock market genius! so for additional information, be sure to read it yourself.

New here? Catch up on the series.

Part 1: Odd Lot Tenders

Part 2: Book review on You can be a stock market genius!

What is a Spinoff?

Spinoffs can take many forms but a simple definition can be defined as a corporation taking one of its subsidiary or business division and then separating it to create a new company. A spinoff usually occurs because the company wants the public to fully recognize the underlying assets of the division and to get a better valuation of the whole company. The newly created company is then valued by the market independently.

Why Spinoffs?

The first good sign is that spinoffs in general beat the market. There is a chance that a spinoff index “could” serve better than an index fund. But why? The short answer is the people that receive the shares, usually don’t want it. If the spinoff is performed via an IPO, that would be a different story as people interested in the spinoff are the buyers.

Now if a spinoff occurs so that a previously hidden asset is desired to be recognised, you would think that people would hold onto the shares for dear life. Not the case. E.g. If company ABC is a car manufacturing company with a tiny car alarm division, it is safe to assume the shareholders may not want to hold a car alarm company. Their original intention was to own ABC as a car manufacturer. Thus, there is a strong selling pressure following the spinoff. Other selling factors include:

  1. people bought a car manufacturer, not a car alarm company
  2. they don’t understand the business of the spinoff
  3. it may not fit with their investing allocation or strategy
  4. the spinoff size may be a small or micro cap, preventing safety seekers or institutions to hold onto the shares
  5. debt from the parent could be loaded off to the spin off

All of the above reasons cause short term selling pressures which usually result in sharp price drops within the first few weeks.

Spinoff Characteristics

Here are some characteristics that can point to an exceptional spinoff opportunity.

  1. Institutions don’t want it. As mentioned above, institutions have a to abide to rules such as not owning more than a certain percentage. They end up selling without even looking at the business and investment merits.
  2. Insiders are incentivised and want the spinoff to succeed. Will they be receiving stock, options or preferred stock as compensation? Analyze management compensation plans, actions and motives. Insiders should have a vested and active interest in the new company with a large incentive.
  3. Previous hidden investment opportunity is uncovered.
  4. Keeping an eye on the parent company can also pay off.

Some Remarks

Partial spinoffs and rights offering are also just as profitable as spinoffs but due to my lack of experience in this area, I’ll be skipping this additional section. As I find examples of past partial spinoffs and rights offerings, I’ll provide an update post when I grasp the whole picture.

In the meantime, for commentary on upcoming or recent spinoffs, Stocks Spin Off blog provides useful information.

Lastly, as I don’t want reader attention to wane, I’ll leave spinoff examples for the next post.

[tags]special situation, spin off [/tags]