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Puget Energy: Price Drop On No News

Lately the price of PSD has dropped as much as 10%. If this was a regular market, that could mean something, but we are not in a regular market – it’s still driven by fear and emotions.

The status of the merger has not changed one bit from my last post. There have been no new publicly announced press releases, but some interesting filings with the Washington Utility and Transportation Commission (WUTC) may be of interest.

Recall that I wrote about how the final reply briefs had to be submitted by October 23,2008. Well, there were plenty of submissions and responses. I’ll provide a brief look at what’s been going on.

To read all posts related to PSD, click here.

Filings On October 23, 2008

Conclusion of the reply briefs submitted by PSD

  • The members of Puget Holdings have demonstrated a long-term commitment to
    PSE and its customers.
  • Puget Holdings’ commitment to PSE goes beyond financial support.
  • Puget Holdings has worked closely with other stakeholders in this process and has earned the support of almost all parties to this proceeding.
  • Only Public Counsel fails to recognize the benefits of the Proposed Transaction.
  • The supporting parties have divergent interests and goals, yet they have acknowledged that the Proposed
    Transaction is in the public interest, and they have supported the Multiparty Settlement Stipulation.

Conclusion of the reply briefs submitted on behalf of Commission Staff from Donald T. Trotter

  • Proposed transaction meets the Commission’s “no harm” standard
  • Commission should grant the Application according to the terms and conditions int he Settlement Stipulation
  • Commission should reject Public Counsel’s opposition to the transaction

Filings On October 24, 2008

Conclusion of the reply briefs submitted by the Public Counsel

  • Requests the Commission find the proposed transaction as described in the Settlement Stipulation is not in the public interest

Filings On October 28, 2008

Conclusion of Commission Staff Motion to Strike Portions of Public Counsel Reply Brief from Donald T. Trotter

  • The Commission Staff requests that several paragraphs from the Public Counsel’s reply brief be striked out
  • Public Counsel reply brief seeks to include additional information which should not be considered as it does not comply with the proceedings

Conclusion of Puget Holdings Motion to Strike Portions of Public Counsel Reply Brief

  • Much the same as the Commission Staff’s motion to strike. The Public Counsel only seeks to delay the proceedings

Filings On October 31, 2008

Conclusion of response from Public Counsel Opposition to Motions to Strike Portions

  • Citing late-breaking news in a brief is not ordinary procedure, for good reason. This is not an ordinary situation, however, and the rules provide the Commission the discretion and flexibility to address it.
  • Joint Applicants and Staff unreasonably ask the Commission to disregard developments that have occurred since the filing of the initial briefs, as they initially sought to do with events between the hearing and the initial briefs. Their position has been that the record should remain as it was at the end of August. Public Counsel does not agree that the Commission should operate in such a vacuum.

Filings On November 5, 2008

Conclusion of Granting Motions to Strike by the Commission

  • The Commission already has reopened the record once at Public Counsel’s request to allow him to introduce materials similar for the most part to what he seeks to introduce here.
  • The material he introduced then was of marginal relevance and cumulative to evidence already in the record which illustrates that financial markets in the U.S. and worldwide currently are volatile.
  • There is nothing compelling about what Public Counsel seeks to introduce.
  • Contrary to Public Counsel’s suggestion, the Commission is not “operating in a vacuum” in this regard, but is fully aware of current events.
  • The Commission grants Staff’s and Joints Applicants’ respective motions to strike.

Filings On November 11, 2008

Denying Public Counsel’s Motion Challenging Confidentiality

This filing is in response to the Public Counsel’s challenge to the Commission that it did not abide by the confidentiality codes.

  • Considering this, and the fact that Public Counsel challenges the confidential designation of all of the information highlighted in Mr. Hill’s testimony, we find Public Counsel’s motion deficient on its face.
  • THE COMMISSION DENIES the “(Corrected) Public Counsel Motion Challenging the Confidentiality of Certain Materials Provided in Discovery by Joint Applicants.”

Conclusion

It’s evident that the Public Counsel’s purpose is to delay the merger. They have been unable to provide any real argument and all their challenges have been met with denials.

All parties affected by the merger have agreed that the merger is in the best interest of the public except the Public Counsel. Even the commission staff has expressed that the merger meets all standards and it should be approved.

The only conclusion I can come up with is that hedge funds are selling their positions as they try to deleverage. Don’t be fooled that the market is efficient in the short term.

My estimated holding period of 1 week was way off. I’ve held PSD shares for 1 month now, but considering a nice gain is still available and the stability it is providing for my portfolio, I don’t mind holding for 1 more month.

Disclosure

I hold shares of PSD at the time of this writing.

The current price looks pretty good to me but I won’t be adding as I’ve already doubled down and am pretty overweight with this one.

[tags]PSD, merger, UTC, arbitrage, Special Situations[/tags]

Update: Puget Energy (PSD) Arbitrage

I wasn’t planning to write an update on the PSD arbitrage but a reader asked for my opinion on how I currently see the PSD merger so I’ll share it with everyone else and try to provide additional information.

Reminder Points

If the deal is approved, each share of PSD will be converted to $30 cash.

The deal is being financed by a “consortium of long-term infrastructure investors led by Macquarie Infrastructure Partners, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and British Columbia Investment Management Corporation and also includes Alberta Investment Management, Macquarie-FSS Infrastructure Trust and Macquarie Capital Group (collectively, the Consortium).”

All approvals have been received and the only process remaining is for reply briefs to be submitted by Oct 23 so that the UTC can review it and make a decision.

Price as of this writing is around $22.40 with a spread of just under 33% with about 1 week remaining which is an annualized profit of 1488%! (since I was wrong about the timeline of 1 week, I cannot give the accurate %)

Along with every other company out there, Puget Energy was thrown out during the market meltdown.

Odds of the Merger

I’m going to do something very similar to what Sivaram from Can Turtles Fly has already done.

Upside Potential: 33%

Downside Potential: 10%

Probability of Success: > 90%

Probability of Failure: <10%

Time Frame: 1 week > 1week but < 1 month

From the odds that I’ve applied to the situation, this could be highly profitable.

Additional Details of the Merger

Back in July 23, PSD filed a multiparty stipulation involving Puget Holdings, Puget Sound Energy, Staff of the Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission, Industrial Customers of Northwest Utilities, Northwest Industrial Gas Users, The Energy Project, NW Energy Coalition, and The Kroger Company. A month later, on August 25, all but one of the issues have been agreed upon.

However, reading the appendix from the exhibits, it is clear to me that this one issue should not prevent or upset the merger. All parties, including the UTC staff, have basically given the Ok for the merger to be approved. Even though PSD has a lot to agree upon in the stipulation, I don’t see anything outrageous.

On Oct 9, a filing made by PSD reveals that capital has been committed and ALL approvals have been obtained. All that remains is a review of the reply briefs if they are submitted by Oct 23. This leaves 1 week for an announcement by the UTC.

Insiders have also been vesting their options without any of them selling of exercising. It’s always important to see how insiders view the merger and interviews and actions of insiders confirm that the merger is a high priority in 2008 and they all want to see it go through.

Risks

At this point, I only see that truly unpredictable occurrences, which the company has no control over, is the only thing that can upset the deal.

Completion Checklist

  1. Due diligence by both parties – Yes
  2. Financing and regulator approval – Yes
  3. Get preliminary shareholder sentiment (or controlling shareholder approval) – Yes
  4. Obtain regulator (SEC, FCC, any and all) approval – Yes
  5. Get final shareholder approval at a meeting called for that purpose – Yes
  6. Insiders continually vesting or buying shares – Yes

Conclusion

The market being what it is, irrationality has allowed the price to drop from the mid $27 to the mid $22 which is actually below pre-merger announcements. Even if by freak of nature the deal is canceled, the company offers a dividend yield of 4.5%. Not to mention that this is a reliable utility especially in times of a recession.

I don’t believe I’ve ever seen such an advantageous arbitrage opportunity as this one.

Disclosure

Entered into a 1/2 position at $22.50 and looking to add the remaining half between the range of $21.6 – $22.50.

[tags] arbitrage, psd, Special Situation,merger,utc[/tags]