Old School Value blog

Empowering value investors with stock valuation, ideas and tutorials

Analysis Now Includes Spider Graphs

I find it much easier to see and understand graphs and lines rather than a row of numbers next to each other. I have to admit that my investing techniques still needs work. So in an effort to iron out some kinks, I will now implement a spider chart (Excel calls it a radar chart) when I analyze companies.

Here is an example. Note the difference between AeroGrow (AERO) (one of my many mistakes) and Coca Cola (KO).

See what I mean? There is a big difference between looking at notes and thinking about the business and actually receiving a visual representation.

Ratings and Metrics Explanation

The scale is from 0 – 5 where 0 is the worst and 5 is the best. Obviously, the bigger the area in the graph, the better.

A brief definition of the metrics used:

  • Best – 5
  • Good – 4
  • Average – 3
  • Below Average – 2
  • Bad – 1
  • Worst – 0

Under Valued: 5 is extremely undervalued and 0 is overvalued. KO has a fair value so it is 3 for average.

High Growth: 5 is high growth and 0 is no growth. I would say KO has an average to below average growth rate.

Low Risk: 5 is close to no risk and 0 is high risk of losing money. Risk could be in the form of one major customer, high debt, high inventory, unpredictable margins.

Well Managed: 5 is excellent company management with 0 being sleazy managers (Enron, Worldcom)

Good Financial Health: 5 is a company that generates excellent cash and strong balance sheet. 0 is a company with huge debt, overly issuing stocks etc.

Strong Moat: 5 is an impentratable moat with 0 being nothing more than a trickle.

(I think there was little confusion with the graphs by a couple of people. These are just my metrics. The whole point of the graph is to remind myself how I saw the company at that point in time. Just because it may be 90% undervalued, doesn’t make it a good investment. All aspects have to be considered and this is just a reminder not an indicator.

So far, I only have 6 metrics but I may add more if I think they are necessary.

Also, the metrics are what you make it. Everyone has a different perception of risk, health, moat etc so the point is to hopefully bring up ideas which could help you in your own analysis.

Take everything I do and say with a grain of salt.)

Disclosure

No positions in stocks mentioned at time of writing.

[tags] aero, ko, stock analysis[/tags]

Tags: aero, ko, Stock Analysis

9 Comments
  1. - Miguel

    Great Graphs,

    How do you make these graphs. Very interesting.

  2. - Jae Jun

    It’s just a radar graph in excel.
    Just create a table, then create a radar graph with the values. Very easy. :)

  3. - Singapore Recession

    what you did is great!
    It provides a helicopter view of a company.
    Like what you said, everyone has different perceptions on these, so it may be better to just it to compare the business against business in similar industry.

    Ren

  4. - Tim

    Great way of representing the data!

  5. - stockmanmarc

    The visual is a great way to present the data especially using 2 companies like you did in your example

  6. - Yuva

    decision is still based on values not based on representation(of any particular shape) right.!? meaning any best case/shape , worst case/shape.. to read quickly without watching details.!?

    Yuva’s last blog post..Low inflation vs. No inflation vs. Deflation

  7. - Jae Jun

    The decision is still based on values but the graph tells you what type of company it is. Its a good reference to check once in a while.

    You wouldn’t want to invest in a company that has the shape of aerogrow though.

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