Portfolio Update January 2010


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Portfolio Performance

Not an ideal start to the year. Down -5.74% compared to the market’s -2.74%. It was a tough second half of January where I gave up all the gains I  had achieved in the beginning of the month.

Portfolio Movers

My biggest holdings VVTV and GGWPQ have been falling much faster than everything else which is the main cause of the loss in portfolio value.

There hasn’t been any game changing news for VVTV so I’m holding on as I am keen to see how Q4 turns out. It will be interesting to see their full fiscal year numbers.

GGWPQ on the other hand hasn’t announced any bad news but the public debate between Hovde, T2 and Pershing Square seems to be dictating the short term volatility.

Add BOLT to the mix where they released Q2 earnings that were not as impressive as the previous comparable quarter and the stock gave back all of the 30% gain I was sitting on, but upon reviewing the financial statements, the fundamentals are still strong.

Portfolio Trades

January was chockablock full of action. More than I liked.

1. Bought ELST

I’m trying to sell it now. I’ll explain once I’m finished with the trade.

2. Sold EMMS @ $1.15-1.19 for a 23.79% gain

After EMMS announced their last quarter, the company wasn’t performing as well as I had hoped. I was considering holding, but preferred to move to cash. EMMS was never a good company. It was a mediocre company but a great opportunity, where I didn’t realize the full value but still got out with a tidy profit.

3. Bought GRVY

Doubled down on GRVY as I continued learning more about the company. Dropped back to my buy level as the market dropped. Turned out to be a lucky move as the price climbed back up with the news of the Nintendo DS release of Ragnarok.

As a member mentioned in the forum, this is just another one of the free games and royalties shareholders receive at the current unbelievable stock price.

4. Bought LTON

This is the second time entering LTON. The company has fallen back to less than its net net value.

5. Bought BOLT

As mentioned above, BOLT didn’t meet Wall Street expectations and the stock dropped to around my original buy price, so I doubled down on this one as well.

6. Sold SALM @ $5.25 for a 390.58% gain.

Radio stocks turned out to be a very good bet. Especially considering I entered my positions in late August. I believe that the industry still has plenty of potential for cash flow to increase, should advertising spending return to the norm, but most of the stocks are now fairly priced and I’m getting out.

Cash has been reduced to about 5% now. As I mentioned on my twitter, I’m trying to clean my portfolio and want to move some of it to cash, but I’ve been doubling down lately which has been using up most of the cash.

Disclosure

I hold all stocks mentioned except sold positions.

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5 responses to “Portfolio Update January 2010”

  1. ryan b says:

    I just completed a very quck scan and I am wondering if the cash burn rate concerns you. I am assuming you a looking for around a 20-30% discount rate of NNAV upon taking an entry position, but what is your target in terms of the sell price?

  2. Jae Jun says:

    @ Ryan,

    Which one are you referring to? LTON?

  3. Ryan B says:

    Sorry, LTON

  4. Shuqin Zheng says:

    Hi Jae, about BOLT, what is your opinion on the risk of technological change relating to their products and the risk of its inability to develop new competitive products in a timely manner. In the last 10 years (2000-2009), the average R&D expense is 1.4% of gross profit. The yearly expense in R & D is very stable ($0.3 mil yearly), and lower than competitors. This was discussed extensively on the Yahoo message board http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/Stocks_(A_to_Z)/Stocks_B/threadview?m=tm&bn=77337&tid=3448&mid=3448&tof=2&frt=2.

  5. Jae Jun says:

    @ Susan,
    The thing about yahoo boards is that there is a great deal of emotion, noise and spam involved without any evidence or data to back up the points.

    The people on the board say that the CEO is set in his ways and doesn’t know how to run the company. The performance of the company for the past 10 years directly contrast this statement. Nobody was saying this when BOLT was flying in 2007. Same CEO, same management, same products, same industry. The only difference is oil prices and peoples perception.

    I would also think that a CEO of a company for 20 years will know the industry like the back of his hand and experience is also key.

    Another point is that the yahoo board is purely focused on EPS and guidance which I find to be rubbish. e.g. KTII never offered any guidance or even a single conference call, yet their FCF and operations spoke a thousand words. BOLT is the same.

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