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You’d think that as you get older, you’ll get wiser and learn from your mistakes. Seems that line of thinking is also wrong and part of the problem. I look at the companies around me that I use daily, or think I know really well, and continually fail to invest in.
Tilson’s presentation (2nd link) really brought this to light. The irony is that the everyday people who aren’t looking to scrutinize every minor detail, are the ones who buy into great companies much earlier and better than most value investors. 🤔
They don’t anchor their decisions to past prices as much as the fundamental guys like me.
The behavioral aspect of investing is something I don’t think I’ll every fully master til the end.
Old School Value Articles You May Have Missed
- How to Use the Cash Conversion Cycle to Analyze Stocks
- Walmart is Not the Perfect Stock. So What?
- How to Use Inventory Analysis to Predict Future Stock Returns
What We’re Reading in the Media
Reading a 10-K can be a dry and boring process. Especially if it’s a company in an industry you don’t understand. I’ve fallen asleep plenty of times try to read 10-K’s of energy stocks or pharmaceuticals. Just not my cup of tea. This article breaks down each component so that you can understand what each section is meant for. I’ve also written my version of how to read a 10-K as well.
An important nugget in the article is this:
Another thing about the notes to the financial statements… you will notice a lot of repeated language from earlier in the K, particularly from the MD&A and business description, but sometimes the company will slip little changes into the same language over time, and that’s something to look for if your ADD will allow it.
Which is why I use this little trick to compare footnotes and speed up the entire process without having to look for needles in a haystack.
Whitney Tilson’s presentation on Alphabet (I still prefer to just call them Google).
After going through this presentation, I so relate to the reasoning behind “missing” so many superb companies.
- As a contrarian and value investor, I don’t like owning what everyone else owns
- I don’t like buying stocks that have already risen a lot (instead, I prefer to bottom-fish among the beaten-down stocks of out-of-favor companies, betting that they can turn things around)
- I felt extreme regret for not having long ago purchased the stock of this incredible company – a classic case of the “I missed it” phenomenon
I’m sure this resonates with many of us value investors.
Other reading links:
- How Amazon Rebuilt Itself Around Artificial Intelligence
- Short selling around the expiration of IPO share lockups (abstract)
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