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Starting off with a couple of ancient articles from 1999 and 2000 by Whitney Tilson when he was still a tiny operation and writing on Fool.com
To the best of my knowledge, Warren Buffett, the chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, has only expressed strong opinions about the market’s valuation levels on six occasions in the past 42 years. In the first four cases where we know the outcome, he was uncannily accurate, so investors would be wise to carefully consider his latest warning in a recent issue of Fortune…
For a number of years now, we have been in a remarkable bull market where valuation hasn’t mattered. In fact, I believe that the more investors have focused on valuation in recent times, the worse their returns have been. But this hasn’t been true over longer periods historically, and I certainly don’t think it’s sustainable. While the laws of economic gravity may have been temporarily suspended, I do not believe that they have been fundamentally altered…
For those that want to know how to value banks. I still don’t get it.
Bank valuation can be made a great deal more complicated than it needs to be. Sure, you can value deposits, use varying price to book ratios for different quality banks, look at the latest takeover prices, play with many more styles and average them all together, but I like to stick to a discounted cash flow model based on a ten year average of return on average assets (ROAA). If you’re dealing with just the good banks, valuation is pretty simple.
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