Odds Update for EMAG Arbitrage

There has been a real good discussion over at the original EMAG post and with just 1 week remaining until Feb 11, there has been no news (good or bad) from any party. The spread when I wrote the first post was at 47% with a price of $1.94.

After the initial post, I couldn’t find additional information on SIBL, HSSO and EMAG to counter my reasonings so I bought at $1.94 on Jan 27. On Feb 3, I liquidated by PSD position in order to take another bite at $2.40.

As you can see below, I’ve upped the probability of success to 80%. Why? If you look at slide 10 in the presentation (image below), HSSO’s future depends on acquiring EMAG.


EMAG will become the “platform” for further growth and strategic acquisitions. With SIBL holding a majority stake, my assumption is they are also backing HSSO. An event like last December shouldn’t occur again.

Odds of the Merger

Current Price: $2.47

Upside Potential: 15% / $2.85

Downside Potential: 50% / $1.23

Probability of Success: conservative: >60% | realistic: > 80%

Probability of Failure: conservative: < 40% | realistic: < 20%

Time Frame: min: 3 weeks | max: 11 weeks (3 months) until March 31,2009. min: 7 days | max: until March 31, 2009 (highly unlikely at this point)


I hold EMAG at the time of writing.

[tags]special situation,EMAG,HSS,SIBL,merger,arbitrage[/tags]

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