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11:12 pm
March 23, 2010
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john_allen
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| Member | posts 46 |
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thank you for the response, that does make some logical sense. Interesting!
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3:18 pm
March 23, 2010
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eldinril
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Well… this actually gets more into technical analysis and trading, which I will say in advance is not the focus of this website. That said, the general rule of thumb is that if you want to see the sentiment of the amateurs, watch the open. If you want to watch the sentiment of the professionals, watch the close. The underlying thesis is that amateur traders put in their orders overnight or before the open, so they are going to weigh most heavily on the open. The professional traders are the one's who have to decide whether to carry their positions overnight or over the weekend, and so they tend to make their moves later in the day.
Over the years, I have paid attention to this in an informal manner. I think the mileage you can get from it is limited, but that you can find some underlying strength or weakness by paying attention to it. In this case, it just made me feel confident that there would be further follow-through to the upside, and that I could put in a limit order at the price I wanted rather than just a market order on the open. It wound up getting executed in the last half-hour of trading on Monday.
Best wishes,
Jim
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11:57 pm
March 22, 2010
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john_allen
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| Member | posts 46 |
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Eldinril,
Why does late day buying implu an institutional investor?
thank you,
John
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10:50 pm
March 22, 2010
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psp627
| | Cincinnati, OH | |
| Member | posts 3 |
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Funny- I got out today at $2.82. A nice return for just a few months. It ended up closing at $3. I calculated NCAV at $2.79 and the long-term outlook for the company is not good, so it met my criteria for selling.
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6:23 pm
March 22, 2010
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eldinril
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| Member | posts 25 |
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I closed this one out today at $2.83, which I believe is tangible book value. I still have seen no news to justify the recent rally, but both days the primary movement occured late in the day suggesting that some professionals are buying it.
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10:45 pm
November 16, 2009
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psp627
| | Cincinnati, OH | |
| Member | posts 3 |
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I am still holding onto this position as well. With a significant discount to cash, I will continue to hold on. i will re-evaluate once (if) a transaction takes place.
I can only hope they decide to return a big chunk to shareholders but I agree with eldinril that it seems to be burning a hole in their pocket.
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12:03 am
November 15, 2009
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eldinril
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Well… the President of the company said that they had fired vFinance and hired Morgan Joseph to "revitalize our efforts and to canvas a broader range of potential targets". It sounds to me like their cash is burning a hole in their pocket.
I still own the small position that I took, and I still think it is a good value. The technicals look like it is poised for a potential break-out, for what that is worth.
Best wishes,
Jim
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1:20 am
November 13, 2009
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Jae Jun
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What do you think about FORD's decision to try and spend their money through an acquisition?
They are still trading at a 22% discount to net net value. If management were shareholder friendly it would definitely be an interesting play.
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8:20 am
October 15, 2009
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Jae Jun
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hmmm I first heard of FORD on seekingalpha but never did go into it.
I'll have to see how it stacks up against other net nets but if it's still at a 25% discount to net net value, then wow. Looks like the downside is well protected then depending on what it's made up of.
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8:00 am
October 15, 2009
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eldinril
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| Member | posts 25 |
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"Strategic acquisitions" seem to be the bane to our success.
I have not seen any news. I had noticed that it looked like somebody was quietly accumulating the stock in the $1.70 range over the last few weeks. This price surge has come with a sharp increase in volume, so maybe something is happening with it. (Forgive me for mentioning technicals here).
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10:36 pm
October 14, 2009
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psp627
| | Cincinnati, OH | |
| Member | posts 3 |
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I've been watching this for a while. Greenback'd had an excellent post.
Any news on why the rally the last couple of days?
One concern is that management sounds like they want to use the cash for an acquistion based on the last 10Q. The business itself (primarily OEM carry cases for medical devices) is also under a lot of cost/pricing pressure so the outlook is very hazy.
That said, even at $2, this seems to offer a lot of potential value.
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4:48 pm
October 14, 2009
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eldinril
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| Member | posts 25 |
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I just thought I would share this stock as a net-net value stock. It has historically delivered double digit returns on equity, assets, and invested capital. It has been trading at a small discount to Discounted Cash Flow and at about a 25% discount of its Intrinsic Value. It also closed today at a 25% discount to its net-net working capital of $2.62. I also find it interesting that it currently trades at a third of franchise value (EPV minus Total Net Reproduction Cost). It rallied sharply over the last two days, but still offers the aforementioned value.
Do your own due diligence, and we will see what it does.
Best wishes,
Jim
Disclosure: I own FORD.
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